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Manchin 2024?


Joe Manchin’s 2024 Senate campaign will generate so many hot takes that the internet will go supernova:

Joe Manchin strongly signaled in 2018 that his brutal reelection campaign that year was his last. Now, as he marshals the entire Senate in his centrist direction, he’s not so sure he’ll call it quits.

The West Virginia Democrat is steadily padding his campaign coffers, raising $1.6 million in the first six months this year and sitting on nearly $4 million for a potential race that wouldn’t occur for three years. His colleagues say he’s not acting like a senator in his last term, despite his famous assertion during his last campaign that Washington “sucks.”…

Manchin won his 2018 campaign by three points, a scare for a former governor who won his 2012 race by 24 points. His fundraising also helps keep up appearances to maintain his sway in the evenly-divided Senate: Retiring lawmakers often wield less influence than those who are running again — or at least considering it.

The math here is straightforward; on the one hand is Joe Manchin, and on the other hand is the balance of humanity which, for various reasons, cannot plausibly aspire to the be Democratic senator from West Virginia. That said, while it’s difficult to predict the future I have my doubts that even Manchin can hope to win West Virginia in 2024, when he’ll have to share a ticket with a Democratic presidential nominee who will lose by 30 points or so.

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