Divisional Round Open Thread 2

CHIEFS (-9 1/2) v. Texans One puzzle about Bill Belichick is why he has failed to mentor successful NFL head coaches. This is beginning to change. Mike Vrabel, obviously, has done an outstanding job in Nashville, and a lot of coaches would have stuck with Mariota rather than switching to Tannehill, a move that was critical to the team being in a position to knock off the defending champions and the league’s best team this year on the road in successive weeks. There was actually an interesting discussion on the Mays/Clark podcast about whether Vrabel was really part of the Belichick tree, since while he played for Belichick for 8 years he was never an assistant. I would say definitely yes. First, if you used the hypothetical question Bill James used to ask to place managers in trees — who would Vrabel say most influenced him — I would be shocked if the answer wasn’t Belichick. But if not, the answer would presumably be his only NFL coach, Bill O’Brien — so he’s part of the Belichick tree either way. (And even his college coach when he was an assistant at that level, Urban Meyer, is a Belichick protege although he was never his assistant.) So I think he has to be considered part of the Belichick school, and he’s the first unequivocal NFL success. And while we need to see more you also have to be impressed with what Brian Flores was able to accomplish with the league’s worst roster in Miami.

Which brings me to Bill O’Brien and the subject at hand. I’m not a fan, but…let me raise a modest defense. If you think a team with this core of talent should be better, I think you’re right. But we should also acknowledge that they could be worse than “perennial champion (of an admittedly weak) division” too. As any Browns fan can tell you, creating a program professional enough that talented players can do good work and don’t lose the respect of the coach the second something goes wrong isn’t something that just happens. And he also deserves credit for presumably having a major role in the decision to get Watson, when multiple teams (including, most directly, the Browns) passed. So…he’s neither good nor bad, he’s OK. If he wants to move into the former group, this is the kind of win he needs. Do I think he will? Nah. Reid has his game management issues but that’s not exactly a strength of O’Brien’s either, and in terms of ex ante gameplanning
only the master in Foxboro is better than Andy among contemporary coaches. And Jackson’s remarkable season tended to overshadow the fact that Mahomes was almost as effective pass for pass despite being compromised by injury for several games. In addition, KC’s pass defense was quietly 6th in DVOA. The low floor/high ceiling Spagnuolo was in retrospect an inspired hire. He’s a hardass with very complex schemes, so when things go wrong with Spags they go really wrong (cf. his entire tenure as HC in St. Louis.) But as we know given some talent to work with he can push them to very high levels. Given how badly the Chiefs were underachieving on defense, hiring him was a good gamble, and you have to say it paid off. You can’t write off any team with DeShaun Watson, but the Texans have a much tougher challenge than Josh Allen this week and I don’t see them winning at Arrowhead.

PACKERS (-4) over Seahawks These are both very hard teams to get a line on. On the one hand, Seattle were literally a few inches from winning the league’s best division. On the other hand, they barely outscored their opposition. On the third hand, DVOA has them at #8, which seems about right — they’re not as good as their record, but their point differential is misleading because 1)they played a brutal schedule and 2)the conservatism of their playcalling tends to produce games (like the Atlanta and Carolina games) that are closer on the scoreboard than the field. The Packers (10th in DVOA) are also a not-as-good-as-their-record-but-still-dangerous team. Wilson is clearly ahead of Rodgers at this point in their careers — although Rodgers is still terrifying in any particular game — and I can see a case for taking Seattle and the points. But the Packers are more rested, and the hyperconservatism of the Seattle coaching staff has real costs too. Normally I wouldn’t be too worried about RB injuries, but in the case of Seattle — who are committed to running a lot no matter what — it’s a problem. Last week, Schotty did let Russell cook a little, but he also kept feeding guys who could barely crack a yard per carry. You can get away with giving away possessions when you’re playing Josh McCown throwing to the team’s taxi squad, but against Aaron Rodgers (even in his slightly diminished form) it’s another story. It’s a close matchup but I see the Pack pulling away late in this one as the extra week of games starts to show on an already injury-ravaged Seahawks team.