Election of the Weekend III: Guinea

Just over four years ago, Alpha Conde, about a year into his third term as president, was arrested after a brief gunfight by special forces in a swift and successful military coup, one of the first in a wave of coups over the next few years in West Africa. The leader of that coup, General Mamady Doumbouya, justified the coup on corruption and economic mismanagement grounds. Weeks later, he was sworn in as interim president. This weekend, that same general is overwhelmingly likely to be elected president as Guinea returns, at least nominally, to democratic rule.

Doumbouya, a career military officer trained in France, began consolidating and growing his power within the Guinean military in 2018, after being appointed (in hindsight perhaps unwisely) by President Conde to head a new elite special forces unit. Post-coup, Doumbouya was successful in quickly stabilizing the country; it did not descend into extended instability or political violence. Those associated with the old regime, including Conde himself, were generally not subject to violence and reprisals. On the other hand, the country became notably less free and more repressive, and a number of anti-regime activists have disappeared under mysterious circumstances, and he has significantly restrained and limited critical press coverage of his government.

There are nine candidates on the ballot, but as in Cote D’Ivoire, most of the strongest potential challengers were disqualified. There seems to be little doubt among both Guineans and international observers that the purpose of this election is not so much to select a president as to legitimize the current one. Doumbouya has spent a great deal of time and energy in his four interim years meeting with and strengthening relations with a number of regional leaders. The interesting questions about this election are not about who will win, but about how Doumbouya’s conduct in office may or may not change once the interim tag is removed, and how various international actors, such as ECOWAS, will treat the next phase of his regime.