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Author: Paul Campos

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A 53-47 GOP senate

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On November 6, 2024
It looks increasingly probable that Bob Casey has lost his Senate race in Pennsylvania, which means the GOP is likely looking at a 53-47 majority. This is extremely bad, because it removes Collins and Murkowski as potential ameliorating influences/votes. Not that the two of them...
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Couple of early turnout notes

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On November 5, 2024
The Florida Election Lab, Prof. Michael McDonald's project, had recorded 85.6 million early votes as of an hour ago. This site includes non-public sources of information so the numbers are higher than the NBC early vote tracker a lot of people have been citing. The...
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LGM prediction post

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On November 4, 2024
Here at the end of the Internet, it's a tradition to ask commenters to predict on their eve the outcome of presidential elections. Note that this is not a contest, in that any putative winner will gain nothing but eternal blog glory. If you would...
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