2012 Prediction Review

The prediction process for 2012 went better than for 2011:

World Series Champion: Texas Rangers (San Francisco Giants)

College Basketball National Champion: Kentucky Wildcats

Israeli Strikes on Iran:0

3rd Quarter 2012 GDP Growth: 2.0% (2.0-2.7-3.1)

Number of Syrian Presidents named Assad on 12/31/12: 1

North Korean nuclear tests: 1 (0)

November 2012 Unemployment: 8.1% (7.7%)

Democratic seats, Senate: 47 (53+)

Democratic seats, House: 220 (201)

GOP Presidential Nominee: Mitt Romney

Barack Obama Electoral Votes: 272 (332)

Afghanistan Coalition fatalities: 485 (405)

Giving myself half points for GDP (nailed the revised number) and for Obama (at least I picked the right guy). That makes 5 out of 12, a dramatic improvement And now for 2013:

World Series Champion: Cincinnati Reds

Number of new Venezuelan Presidents: 1

Academy Award, Best Picture: Lincoln

Afghanistan Coalition fatalities: 315 (+/- 15)

North Korean nuclear tests: 1

Sunsets on the Syria under President of Bashar al-Assad: 75 (+/- 7)

College Basketball National Champion: Louisville Cardinals

Heisman Trophy: Marcus Mariota

Israeli strikes on Iran: 0

Egyptian Military Coups: 1

Supreme Court vacancies: 1

2013 3rd Quarter GDP growth: 3.2% (+/-.2%)

Number of former Russian aircraft carriers delivered to Indian Navy: 0

Barack Obama approval rate, 12/31/13: 51.3% (+/- .3%)

See also Dave Weigel and Jonathan Bernstein on the subject of predictions. On the more substantive review/prediction industry, see McGrath (maritime trends)  and Feng (naval developments in China from 2012).

17 comments on this post.
  1. Ken Houghton:

    Shouldn’t that approval rating be for 12/31/2013?

  2. Robert Farley:


  3. cpinva:

    at least you were wrong on the right side of the unemployment rate. too bad you didn’t include that for 2013, maybe you could drop it even lower.

    i am curious though, what’s your rationale for predicting a military coup in egypt? will the country become that unstable this year?

  4. Ted:

    If that first one is right I don’t care about any of the others. I’m skeptical, though.

  5. Timb:

    Can a team built around around pitching and defense win without a CF? I sure hope they can.

  6. sleepyirv:

    If you have Cincinnati Reds winning the World Series, it raises an obvious question- What day does Cincinnati fires Dusty Baker to make that possible?

  7. Walt:

    Do you think Chavez is going to die, or leave office?

  8. chris y:

    Chavez is three quarters dead right now. New Venezuelan Presidents > 0 can be assumed. I’m interested and relieved that Farley thinks there will only be one in the year.

  9. c u n d gulag:

    I predict, that the day Chavez dies, we’ll find out that his last words were, “Fidel Castro still lives.”

    And we’ll find that Castro died earlier in the day.

  10. jadegold:

    Randy Forbes (R-VA) “an intellect?”

    Does McGrath really believe this?

  11. Woodrowfan:

    Yeah, he’s not a bad manager overall, but he is too stubborn to see when something isn’t working..

  12. njorl:

    I don’t know about your World Series or NCAA Basketball predictions, but you’ve got the Stanley Cup nailed.

  13. Patrick:

    There’s been at least some talk in Canadian media of awarding it to an amateur or semi-pro team, since it’s at least nominally separate from the NHL organization. I think that’s a great idea, if only as a pub trivia asterisk.

  14. Timb:

    Which is why he’s done such a terrible job for the Reds

  15. Randy Groepper:

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