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Because it’s 3:19 a.m. and my Facebook feed is already full of declarations of rank despair …

[ 49 ] November 6, 2012 |

… I’ll share this Facebook post someone whose opinion I trust mightily wrote last night:

Dear People Flipping Out,

I’ve mentioned this before, but about a decade ago I was in a sabermetric-oriented simulated baseball league with someone I’ll call “Sate Nilver.” I eventually quit that league because no one could defeat “Nilver,” because “Nilver” cared about nothing but being correct. His assiduous devotion to developing models that could defeat your models sapped all the fun out of simulating baseball games with a group of stats nerds. Now, sleep easy, because tomorrow he will “win” again.

I believe in the guy who believes in this guy like he was my son or possibly myself.

Comments (49)

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  1. parrot says:

    most audacious move in chess … the opening move resignation gambit …

  2. Fred says:

    It would be helpful to actually go vote rather than just resorting to faith that everyone else is actually going to vote.

    • I sent in my ballot weeks ago, so today is anti-climatic for me, on the actual voting front.

      • DrDick says:


        • Steve LaBonne says:

          Thirded. Pretty much the only good thing about the voting process in Ohio.

          • DrDick says:

            Here in Montana, we have open absentee voting, same day registration, and election day is a state holiday, which sort of balances out the voter ID law that the local Rethugs pushed through to disenfranchise the Indians and college students. The former provisions were put in place back when Democrats were in running the state.

            • The Dark Avenger says:

              Hiram Johnson put the initiative, the referendum in the California Constitution(with the help of the State Senate and Assembly) with the explicitly stated goal of making it impossible for a Democrat to become governor. It almost worked, there have been only 4 Democratic governors since his reign in Sacramento.

    • SEK says:

      I voted three weeks ago. I’m not discouraging anyone to go to the polls so much as encouraging them not to have heart attacks every thirteen minutes.

    • BigHank53 says:

      Where’s the angst in that?

    • NBarnes says:

      I voted-by-mail last week specifically so that I could spend today in spectator mode.

  3. Nilver had Obama’s chances at 86% last I checked. I feel ok.

  4. From BJ:

    So… final prediction time! Nate Silver at 538 calls it 315.2 for President Obama, 92% chance of winning.

  5. There’s nothing left to do but wait for the inevitable impeachment trial.

  6. Cody says:

    The guy who ruins your games is always the smartest one… for some reason. That’s why no one likes smart people!

    I think I understand Republicans finally.

  7. Not Nate Silver says:

    I am glad to see an acknowledgement that Silver’s good reputation is due to his record (which itself may be mathematically analyzed) of correct predictions, as opposed to chanting that his use of mathematical models cannot be approached by an anecdotal approach, without bothering to ask whether that mathematical approach is valid by analyzing its outcomes (which can involve using anecdotes as treating them as a form of data).
    2. I would point out that a true nerd would sneer at this as mere anecdote. Why does this status update not include a real mathematical analysis of Silver’s actual record in fantasy baseball instead of these impressions?
    3. A truly true nerd would sneer at your reference to baseball. “Sports are suboptimal. What is this entertainment in the context of living in human society that you speak of? It perplexes me. Of course, I post absurdly stupid and derivate memes online, but that is different because it just is that’s why!”

    • SEK says:

      First, a true nerd would point out that you had no “1.”

      Second, a true nerd would point out that sabermetrics is a valid means of evaluating human performance, perhaps even one of the best, given the historical and current data-sets available.

      Third, if you think all I post are “memes” you haven’t read 99 percent of what I’ve written, and if you think making fun of me for posting about popular culture is an insult, well, you haven’t read 99 percent of the comments I’ve written on the posts I’ve written.

      So basically, fourth, you’re just a drive-by asshole. Everyone else here knows that I write things that can be proven correct or vilely otherwise, and that when people investigate my claims, there tends not to be much in the way of vileness or otherwise.

      • Different John says:

        Possibly I’m wrong, but I think you misread that one, SEK – the nerd was writing about himself posting absurdly stupid and derivative memes, not about you writing them, and it seems to me pretty clear the nerd isn’t supposed to be you. The one person it might conceivably be is the facebook poster, but I don’t read it that way either, since the point is to distinguish the truly true nerd from the poster.

      • not not nate says:

        Yes, SEK, you are mostly right. But on the down side, occasionally excessively touchy.

  8. actor212 says:

    To periphrase a meme about Obama that passed around a few years ago…

    “He got this.”

  9. parrot says:

    i’ve concluded flipflop Rmoney is actually leonard zelig … the onion confirms my dot connecting …

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