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The Contingent Moment

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And this is where Tank Commander said “No”:

Last night [Feb 10], a military officer guarding the tens of thousands celebrating in Cairo threw down his rifle and joined the demonstrators, yet another sign of the ordinary Egyptian soldier’s growing sympathy for the democracy demonstrators. We had witnessed many similar sentiments from the army over the past two weeks. But the critical moment came on the evening of 30 January when, it is now clear, Mubarak ordered the Egyptian Third Army to crush the demonstrators in Tahrir Square with their tanks after flying F-16 fighter bombers at low level over the protesters.

Many of the senior tank commanders could be seen tearing off their headsets – over which they had received the fatal orders – to use their mobile phones. They were, it now transpires, calling their own military families for advice. Fathers who had spent their lives serving the Egyptian army told their sons to disobey, that they must never kill their own people.

Thus when General Hassan al-Rawani told the massive crowds yesterday evening that “everything you want will be realised – all your demands will be met”, the people cried back: “The army and the people stand together – the army and the people are united. The army and the people belong to one hand.”

Obviously, could have gone the other way.  There’s a lot to unpack here; this account suggests a primarily internal motivation for deciding not to fire, but I still wonder about the transnational determinants.  The account also suggests that the professional army received the orders to repress the demonstration.  The senior tank commanders may have refused to act because of patriotism or professionalism, but they may also have worried about the loyalty of enlisted personnel and junior officers.

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