Iran Update:Working for the Weekend
By 
Skepticism about the use of Kurds as proxies:
The Trump administration should abandon any plans to arm Iranian Kurdish forces before the first fighter crosses the Iraqi-Iranian border. Not refine it. Not sequence it more carefully. Drop it entirely. The operation will not topple the Iranian regime, will inflame the Persian nationalism that is the Islamic Republic’s most reliable reserve fuel, and — most damagingly — will hand Tehran a coalition-fracturing tool it did not have to build. There is no version of this gambit that serves American strategic interests.
The case for the Kurdish option rests on seductive logic: Iran is multi-ethnic, Kurdish grievances run deep, and armed groups are already positioned along the border. Why not give them a push? Because the push produces exactly the wrong results, on three simultaneous tracks — internally, externally, and strategically — and understanding why requires taking seriously what political scientists know about how governments respond to ethnic challenges, and what Iran’s neighbors are already signaling.
There is a LOT of uncertainty regarding the size and remaining effectiveness of Iran’s ballistic missile and drone arsenals:
The U.S. and Israel say they have degraded Iran’s missile stockpiles and launchers, blunting Tehran’s ability to unleash the massive barrages that opened the war.
Yet Iran is still striking back by widening the conflict across the Middle East, hitting at least 11 countries in six days and jolting the global economy in a bid to pressure Washington to end its attacks.
Iran’s ballistic-missile launches were down 90% from the first day of fighting, the Pentagon said Thursday. Drone attacks fell 83% from the first days of the campaign.
The U.S. and Israel are betting that crippling Iran’s missile arsenal is key to crushing the regime’s ability to fight back. But Iran still has other ways to retaliate, most important its arsenal of low-cost drones. It continues to launch drones by the hundreds at Arab neighbors across the Persian Gulf, spreading fear, roiling markets and disrupting shipments of oil and goods from a region that is crucial to the world’s economy.
Good reporting from NYT on the IRIS Dena debacle. India’s perspective:
Just days before it was torpedoed by a U.S. submarine, an Iranian frigate, the IRIS Dena, had joined 41 vessels and naval personnel from more than 70 countries for peacetime multilateral exercises off India’s eastern coast to reaffirm commitments to freedom of navigation and maritime law. The strike on the ship on Wednesday, and the killing of at least 84 of those on board, has now become a political mess for India.
Iran’s foreign minister called the Dena “a guest of India’s Navy,” and wrote that the American sub had “perpetrated an atrocity” against its crew members.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India has made no official remark about the Dena’s sinking, in international waters off the coast of neighboring Sri Lanka. The Indian Navy said it received a distress call from the Sri Lankan Navy on Wednesday morning about the Iranian warship and joined search and rescue efforts by Sri Lanka.
On Thursday, Mr. Modi said only that India would “continue to support every effort for the peaceful resolution of conflicts.”
Evidently we were able to display our manly American prowess to some Australian guests on the submarine. Shades of Group Captain Lionel Mandrake, only with an Aussie accent. In other news:
- On the lighter side of the news, Russia faces a grim future of economic and political subordination to China.
- More coming soon on the LUCAS drone, a copy of a copy that has improved upon the original.
- State Department utterly failed to prepare for this.
- On diplomatic efforts and Iran’s domestic situation…
- Lotsa things about this war cut different directions with respect to Russia-Ukraine. My feeling is that the long-term impacts are bad for Russia but there are short-term advantages for Moscow based on oil prices and the availability of interceptors.
Also had the chance to discuss on KET: Kentucky Edition (unfortunately video won’t embed), most of the second half of the episode.