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Take it to Vegas*

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On October 30, 2004
My prediction can wait no longer. Kerry 51 Bush 47.5 (various irrelavents) 1.5 Kerry: 304 (Gore 2000 +Florida, Ohio, NH, -Iowa) Bush: 234 Turnout: 59% (Local predictions) Monorail recall fails 52-48 Weird Gambling/property tax initiative fails 63-37 Education/Sales Tax initiative passes 53-47 Charter Schools fail...

Victory

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On October 30, 2004
Kos is spot-on about this. Sure, we all know that if Bush wins a squeaker it probably won't change the way he governs. It potentially matters in the other direction, though. Goal one of this election is removing GWB and co. from power, but an important...

Compulsory voting

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On October 29, 2004

Call me an authoritarian if you wish, but I'm not all that opposed to the idea. I'd certainly make the penalty minimal (but not inconsequential) and I'd formalize the non-participant.

American Politics Pop Quiz

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In General
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On October 29, 2004
Ok, if you haven't read the NYT Op-ed page yet today, explain how this election could lead to a President Edwards being sworn in on Jan 20, 2005, with no assassinations. No peeking. Answer here. Update: No deaths are required.

Vera Drake

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On October 28, 2004

Mike Leigh is, without serious question, a major filmmaker. His method of improvising from complex characters to develop a then-fixed shooting script makes his movies feel like nobody else's, he.

Pop-ups and advertising

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On October 28, 2004
Henry at Crooked Timber notices some GOP 527 ads in strange places: One of my colleagues complained to me this morning that her AOL Instant Messenger software had been hijacked by political spam. As I’ve seen for myself, every time she moves her cursor over the...

Tracking Polls

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On October 28, 2004

I'm statistically literate enough to know that Matt Yglesias is certainly right about this. So why do I stop what I'm doing to check Rasmussen every morning at 9:00 AM?

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