Election of the weekend I: Gabon

Going to get an early start on a buy election weekend.

This is not the first time this series has cast its gaze upon the West African state of Gabon. In 2023, we discussed the unfortunate Bongo dynasty, and how it was likely to continue. Bongo won handily, as expected, but what we failed to anticipate was the remarkably efficient and bloodless coup that would effectively and efficiently end 60+ years of Bongo rule. While Bongo himself was not charged with anything, his wife and son were indicted on corruption and embezzlement charges. Throughout 2023-24 there were conflicting reports about whether he and his family was free in any meaningful sense. In May, perhaps through some negotiations conducted with Angolan president and current head of the African Union  João Lourenço, he and his family were permitted to leave the country, and the decamped to Angola. This Spring we covered the new presidential election, which was to entrench and legitimize coup leader Brince Clotaire Oligui Nguema. In 2024, he put a new constitution to national referendum, which was adopted via a very lopsided vote. Among other provisions of note, the new constitutions put a two term limit on the presidency (but with 7 year terms), and disqualifies spouses and descendants of the current president from running. Presumably this is to prevent another Bongo-type situation from emerging. The new constitution appears (I think, I’m not confident in this interpretation) to strengthen the already quite strong powers of the presidency in various ways and eliminates the office of prime minister. The legislature body will be led by a “vice president” appointed by the President, which is confusing because there will also be a traditional “vice president” in the executive branch. The “too many vice presidents” problem was apparently of little concern to voters.

In my post on the presidential election in April, I said:

A reason for pessimism: a legislative election has yet to be scheduled. The national assembly (which was about 2/3 from Bongo’s party) was dissolved immediately post-coup and Oligui Nguema appointed a “transitional assembly” with Jean-Francois Ndongou, a former Bongo ally (which doesn’t mean much; the nature of the Bongo regime effectively meant being a person of significance in institutional Gabonese politics and being a Bongo ally were alarmingly close to being synonyms), as interim PM. Obviously, even if Saturday’s election is free and fair, a swift return to legislative elections is a necessary if not sufficient condition for any positive appraisal of Gabon’s democratic trajectory.

Just over six months later, here we are, on the eve of Gabon’s legislative election. In political time, I think six months later should probably be interpreted as meeting the “swift” standard I set out in April.

Following Brice Oligui Nguema’s victory on April 12, which marked a significant political shift after a coup toppled the long-standing regime of Ali Bongo, Gabon will hold legislative and local elections on September 27 and October 11.

The electoral campaign officially kicked off in the early hours of September 17, with Hermann Immongault, Minister of the Interior, announcing the opening during a press conference.

He emphasized the unprecedented excitement surrounding these elections, stating, ‘Never in the memory of Gabonese people have elections generated such enthusiasm.’

In total, approximately 1,600 candidates are vying for 145 parliamentary seats, while around 17,000 individuals are competing for various municipal and departmental council positions.

It is these elected councilors who, through indirect voting, will select mayors, heads of departmental assemblies, and senators.

There’s precious little English language coverage of this election, at least that I’ve been able to find, so I have little to report beyond the quoted short piece from Africa news. The October date indicates the French-inspired electoral regime; for seats where no candidate wins a majority a runoff will be held. Obviously one outcome to watch for is the success of Nguema’s party, the Democratic Union of Builders (campaign slogan: “Inclusivity, Development, Happiness”), which I understand is contesting every district. Nguema founded this party shortly after his presidential victory. I suppose I could have tried to translate some of the French press about this election, but it’s a busy election weekend and choices must be made, so I’m going to leave it here.

Those interested in Gabon’s situation and post-2023 trajectory might be interested in this Atlantic Council article, which I found informative but am not well-informed enough to endorse with any confidence. At least superficially, the trajectory here looks a lot better than other recent West African military coups, such as Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, where the new military regimes are not showing anything that could be mistaken for urgency when it comes to returning to civilian rule.