Things Are Going Great!
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Trump could change his mind again on which strategy to pursue, the officials said, especially if Iran responds aggressively. But they noted the pause in military strikes could be enough to calm the roiling energy trade.
“This is the optimal space to occupy if we could get more and more oil out to market despite the threats,” said Richard Goldberg, a former senior adviser to the White House National Energy Dominance Council. “A bad deal essentially subsidizes Iran’s reconstitution, while major military escalation risks major oil market dislocation if the regime can withstand the hits and fire back with precision on Gulf energy.”
The drawback is that Iran is likely to retaliate.
“Could the U.S. naval blockade worsen Iran’s already dire economic situation? Absolutely, which is why nobody should expect Iran to just sit idly by as that happens. It will hit back,” said Eric Brewer, who served in senior nuclear-related roles in the White House and the U.S. intelligence community. “Iran has proven to have a higher pain tolerance than the United States. I’ve seen nothing to suggest that’s changed.”
“There are no good options here for the U.S., only bad ones,” Brewer added.
Republicans are increasingly concerned the war will drag on and hurt the party in the midterm elections, where an already slim GOP control of Congress is on the line. An Associated Press-NORC poll conducted in late July showed just 28% of U.S. adults approve of how Trump is handling the war, down from 34% a month earlier.
We’re stuck in not quite at peace, not quite at war, and it looks like we will be for some time. The only thing I’d like to offer here is that Iranian domestic politics are as complicated as ours and there is some chance that the factions which are currently controlling diplomatic and war policy are overplaying their hand. I am not 100% convinced that all Iranians (or even the entire Iranian government) are as enthusiastic about three more years of economic stringency as the IRGC. It’s also worth noting that Kushner appears to be on vacation, which undoubtedly improves prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough…