Election of the weekend:Kazakhstan

On Sunday, the voters of Kazakhstan will elect the Kurultai of the Republic of Kazakhstan of the first Convocation. The Kurultai, a 145 seat unicameral legislature, will replace the previous bicameral legislature, according to the provisions of a major constitutional reform, passed by wide margins in a June referendum. The Kurultai is elected by proportional representation, with a single nation-wide constituency and a 5% threshold.

There is no particular reason to treat this election as particularly democratic. Seven parties are competing, and the outcome is not preordained. It may well matter at the margins in some ways which parties gain the most support. But at the end of the day, the real center of power in Kazakhstan has been and still very much is in the office of the Presidency, which has been held by only two men, both veteran politicians of the Soviet Era, for the last 35 years. The first president was Nursultan Nazarbayev, who served from 1991-2019. He had negotiated his way up the ranks of the Politburo in the 90’s and 70’s, eventually landing himself in the role of Prime Minister of Kazakhstan in 1984, which positioned him for a relatively smooth transition into the role of strongman-leader of the new Republican of Kazakhstan seven years later. (For his “election” in 1991, the ballot contained no other options.) In 2019, in the midst of anti-regime protests and staring down his 80th birthday, he decided to strategically semi-retire, ceding the presidency to Kassym-Jomart Kemeluly Tokayev, a former soviet diplomat and loyal ally in Kazakh politics. He retained a number of important positions and ensured loyalists were instilled throughout the government. He appointed himself to the constitutional council and retained leadership of the dominant political party, Nur Otan. Tokayev remained fairly loyal to him for three years. But in 2022, he made his move, removing Nazarbayev from the constitutional council, abandoning his party, restoring the capital city’s name from Nur-Sultan back to Astana, and purged Nazarbayev’s family and cronies from a variety of positions. He then held a snap election, won big, and set out to make Kazakhstan his own. This year’s constitutional reforms, which set up this election, are generally understood to be a power consolidation in his favor. He implemented presidential term limits to one seven year term in the new constitution, but that won’t kick in until after the 2029 election, so he will likely remain in power through 2036 if he wants to, well into his 80’s. (Perhaps then, Kazakhstan might see what it’s like to be governed by someone who didn’t cut his teeth in politics by kissing Brezhnev’s ass.)

The important thing to know about this election is that all seven parties running are ‘regime’ parties. One of the nominally social-democratic ones is occasionally mildly critical of Tokayev, but it’s not serious. Here’s a summary of the party positions:

Adilet has emphasized state reform, economic development, digitalization, education, regional development and social protection.

Ak Zhol has campaigned on support for private business, competition and parliamentary accountability, while Auyl has focused on rural development, agriculture and food security.

Respublica, meanwhile, has highlighted entrepreneurship, digital government, infrastructure and economic competitiveness.

The People’s Party has stressed social protection, wages, healthcare, education and support for families and pensioners.

Baitaq has made environmental protection and the transition to a green economy central to its platform, while the Nationwide Social Democratic Party has focused on social justice, reducing inequality and strengthening political competition.

All seven parties complied with statutory requirements concerning the representation of women, young people and people with disabilities.

Across the registered lists, these categories account for 43.9% of all candidates, including 172 women, 74 candidates under 35 and 19 people with disabilities.

Voting is underway.