Peace Sells, but Who’s Buying?
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Bridges, rail lines, power and water facilities and other targets in Iran, Kuwait and elsewhere in the Middle East were attacked in airstrikes on Friday as the United States and Iran escalated their weeklong crisis over the Strait of Hormuz.
Since President Trump declared a cease-fire agreement “over” more than a week ago, daily bombardments have escalated into some of the most widespread attacks since the war began in late February. The U.S. strikes have hit not just military targets but also logistics infrastructure that can also serve civilian needs, including a control tower at Iran’s third-largest port. Iran has tried to strike similar targets in U.S.-allied Gulf countries.
Straining to resolve a war that has dragged on far longer than he predicted it would, and one that has done lasting damage to the global economy, President Trump has threatened to attack an even wider array of civilian infrastructure to try to force Iran’s leaders to make a deal. Such attacks could be considered a war crime, and Iranian officials have warned they would retaliate more broadly if the United States targets civilian infrastructure.
I have some thoughts on war termination at 1945:
Wars end for lots of reasons. The military situation may make it impossible for one side to continue. Both sides may determine that the game isn’t worth the candle, and bargain to find some kind of settlement to pre-empt additional fighting.
Domestic coalitions can shift in response to the progress of a war, creating new factions and changing the political balance of power. Finally, events may shift the perspective of leaders on either side, generating momentum for peace.
So what does this say about when the war in Iran might end?
The Trump administration seems to swing between the belief that it can win the war by destroying Iran’s capacity to resist and the idea that some obvious bargain exists that a rational Iran can be dragged into, for its own good.
For their part, the Iranians seem to be putting their faith in American domestic politics and in the mercurial nature of President Trump.
They seem increasingly confident that Trump rarely follows through on even his aggressive commitments, and that he senses acute electoral vulnerability if he fails to address the war’s economic impact on American consumers.
Gonna be tough to unfuck this situation.