Election of the Day: Colombia
By 
It’s run-off day in Colombia, where voters will elect either right wing businessman Abelardo de la Espriella or progressive politician and Senator Iván Cepeda. In the first round three weeks ago, Espriella got just shy of 44%, about 3% ahead of Cepeda’s 41%. Cepeda would keep the candidate of continuity as he’s leading the same party, Historic Pact, as outgoing president Gustavo Petro. Espriella outperforming him, and coming into the general election as the favorite (he’s been up by 4-8% in all post-first round polling) was a bit of a surprise, as Petro has maintained a decent approval rating through the final months of his presidency. Espriella has received not just the Trump administration’s enthusiastic support, in multiple forms. This election seems pretty consequential:
Cepeda, 63, is a senator and well-known advocate for victims of Colombia’s decades-long armed conflict. He was also part of the negotiations that led to Colombia’s landmark 2016 peace deal with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, that was meant to help end that conflict.
Running as the candidate of Mr. Petro’s party, he has pledged to preserve many of his policies, including anti-poverty programs, land redistribution efforts and negotiations with armed groups.
Mr. De La Espriella, 47, is a former high-profile criminal defense lawyer and businessman with no previous political experience and who spent years living in Florida.
Nicknamed “El Tigre,” or “the tiger,” he has campaigned as an anti-establishment outsider, though he has long been close to Colombia’s right-wing political power elites as a lawyer.
Some of Mr. De La Espriella’s campaign promises echo policies pursued by other Latin American right-wing leaders, such as Nayib Bukele of El Salvador and Javier Milei of Argentina. His platform includes building 10 megaprisons, shrinking the state and collaborating with the United States to combat drug trafficking.
He has also been known to legally pursue his opponents — including journalists. After he received Mr. Trump’s endorsement and the support of some Republican lawmakers, Mr. De La Espriella, a naturalized U.S. citizen, began warning that he would go after anyone who challenged him, with the assistance of the United States.
Last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a memo saying that the presence of a progressive activist living in Arizona, Beto Coral, interfered with U.S. foreign policy after the activist criticized Mr. De La Espriella. Mr. Coral, 40, was detained by U.S. immigration authorities on Tuesday, a move decried by Democrats in Congress and by rights groups.
Polls close in Colombia at 4:00 local time, so we’re mere hours away from learning the results. I hope Secretary Rubio won’t mind me saying that an upset would be a most welcome development.