Israel Has Nuclear Weapons

It’s long been acceptable for those of us outside the government to make the statement in the title line. The US government has never made that statement officially.

That denial of reality distorts all analyses of the Middle East. Things that are little said by analysts and pundits, or said not at all:

• Iran’s nuclear program is a response to Israel’s.
• Israel wants to destroy Iran’s nuclear program to preserve its nuclear monopoly.
• In addition to its conventional superiority, Israel’s nuclear arsenal gives it dominance in its wars.
• Will Bibi Netanyahu feel it necessary to use nuclear weapons against Iran’s enriched uranium?
• Iran sent a couple of warning shots toward Israel’s nuclear complex during the recent hostilities. What would it take for Israel to respond with a nuclear weapon?

In any other theater, statements like these would be part of a normal analysis. You can variously substitute other nations’ names to make sentences that have appeared in the news. The bulleted sentences may have appeared in a few news outlets, but they have not been subjects of general discussion or and seldom are part of analyses.

The first bulleted point, for example, shifts the power dynamic from the way Iran’s nuclear program has mostly been discussed. Independent analysts, including me, have not given Israel’s nuclear arsenal the weight it deserves because of the historical silence around it. Avoiding the subject because one may be attacked or ignored warps one’s thinking.

Thirty House Democrats have now written a letter to Marco Rubio, urging that the administration acknowledge Israel’s nuclear weapons program (WaPo gift link). The letter expresses concern that, with the US fighting alongside Israel, Israel’s nuclear capability and doctrine of use should be known and part of US plans.

The letter asks some very specific questions.

1. What nuclear weapons capability does Israel have?

2. Please provide information on any nuclear weapons systems that Israel fields, including warheads and launchers.

3. Regarding fissile material production capability: · Does Israel currently possess enrichment capabilities, and at what level? · Does the Negev Nuclear Research Center at Dimona produce fissile material? If so, please provide information on the amounts assessed to be produced and their use. · Does the Negev Nuclear Research Center at Dimona produce plutonium? If so, please provide information on the amounts assessed to be produced and their use.

4. Has Israel communicated to U.S. officials any nuclear doctrine, red lines, or thresholds for nuclear use in the context of the current conflict with Iran?

5. Has the administration received any assurances from Israel that nuclear weapons will not be used?

6. Have there been any indications of Israel planning to use or deploy nuclear weapons during the recent Iran conflict or during other conflicts?

7. What is the United States government’s assessment of the risks of radioactive harm to U.S. citizens and personnel in the region that could result from any further strikes on the Negev Nuclear Research Center or any other nuclear sites in Israel?

Three additional questions address the policies of the administration regarding releasing information about Israel’s nuclear weapons program.

The letter starts from some very basic facts. A great deal more material and speculation on Israel’s nuclear weapons program is available publicly. Avner Cohen, mentioned in the article, has written two books on the program and its politics, Israel and the Bomb and The Worst-Kept Secret, for example.