Election of the Weekend I: Djibouti

It’s a busy election weekend, with three more coming on Sunday, including the all-important Hungary election, but the weekend kicks off with Djibouti electing their next president on Friday. Next, in this context, almost certainly means re-electing the current president, who has been in office since the late 20th century. President Ismail Omar Guelleh is expected to win easily, and has drawn no challengers of any significance.

The constitution has already been amended twice to allow Guelleh to remain in office; first, in 2010 (eliminating term limits) and again in 2025 (eliminating age limits). This is nominally the first round in a potential two round election, but there almost certainly won’t be a need for round two. He has no notable challengers, there is no faction in the national legislature. Djibouti is generally classified as an electoral authoritarian regime; there appears to be little room to challenge him. The country’s economy is largely built on services provided to great powers, first and foremost, through leveraging their geographically strategic location for military bases for great powers (US, China, France; even Japan got in on the action in 2011, choosing Djibouti for its first power-WWII significant overseas base) and as a port for a major regional power, Ethiopia, whose chilly relationship to Eritrea give them little choice. Guelleh appears to be doing a servicable job of managing and negotiating these relationships, and as such there appears to be little organized significant elite or popular resistance to his continued rule.

Not much of interest to be said here. Open thread for all things Djibouti or elections-related.