Election of the day: United States

Today officially launches “midterm election” season, with primaries in two states of potential significance in November: North Carolina and Texas midterm primaries are among the elections taking place today. Races of national interest include the Republican and Democratic primaries for senate in Texas, various other state offices in Texas, the Republican primary in NC-1 (currently represented by Democratic incumbent Don Davis, this district went from Trump+3 to Trump+12 in last year’s mid-decade gerrymander), a state supreme court seat and a possible state legislature seat flip in Arkansas, Sheriff and DA races all over North Carolina, county executives in Texas, and much more. As always for those interested in tracking such things I recommend Boltsmag’s monthly election guides; here’s the March one, with previews for all the races mentioned here and more. If you’re not a sicko who follows this stuff in real time on election days, you can check that page later as it’ll be updated with results.

The most watched, and arguably most consequential, races are the two Texas Senate primaries. On the Republican side, it appears Cornyn is losing, but he’s not going quietly: his big push in the last week has been a series of ads and attacks highlighting Paxton’s infidelity issues and character. Paxton isn’t just a further-right/more MAGA Republican in Texas; he’s a genuinely controversial figure even within that milieu, and intensely disliked in a number of corners of the party. The Texas state house did impeach him, after all, although he was saved from removal by his allies in the state Senate. Since there is a 3rd candidate with non-trivial support, there’s a real possibility this race will require a runoff. So I think an optimal outcome, from a Democratic perspective, is Paxton winning by something like 48-40, leading more Cornyn a few more months to keep these attacks going before the May runoff.

On the Democratic side, the race between James Talarico and Jasmine Crockett has been contentious and sometimes embarrassingly ugly and petty, and polling has been all over the place. A few days ago, I would have said the polls appear to give a slight edge to Crockett, but as you can see the final tranche of polls have been strong for Talarico. The gambling community has been consistently bullish on Talarico in a way that seems unsupported by the available public evidence. There are probably few elections of consequence harder to model in American politics than a contentious Democratic primary in Texas, with unprecedently high turnout, so I wouldn’t put much stake in the polls even if they appeared to be telling us something, which I’m not sure they do. Unlike some highly contentious primaries, this one is difficult to effectively chart on the progressive/centrist axis; sometimes Crockett gets tagged as the progressive but that’s mostly a matter of tone; she’s a strident, sharp-tongued, and withering in her contempt for Trump and Texas republicans, while Talarico comes across as a kind of mash-up of Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg, and Mr. Rogers (who was also, like Talarico, an ordained Presbyterian seminarian). Crockett has faced a minor embarrassment in the race’s final weeks over an incident where her staff ejected a journalist from one of her events for being a “top-notch hater” (she had written a profile of Crockett a year earlier that was not entirely flattering), Crockett lied about what happened, while falsely accusing the journalist of having lost a defamation suit, and was then exposed by the journalist producing an audio recording of her ejection.

My meta-view is that the people, especially those outside of Texas, who’ve turned this race into some sort of existential fight over the soul and future of the party should be deeply ashamed of themselves and seriously consider finding a new hobby. More concretely, I think Talarico’s theory of the case alone probably makes him a stronger candidate in November; he is running as if he knows he needs to persuade, not just rally the base, which is Crockett’s avowed strategy. It’s possible we’ll be blessed with such a strong Democratic turnout that a Democratic could win without significant persuasion but a) it’s an unlikely best-case scenario and b) it’s largely beyond any given candidate’s control whether that happens or not. The best outcome for Democrats, IMO, is a Talarico victory today, and a few more months of Cornyn bloodying up Paxton before he limps across the finish line in May. Happily, is not a wildly improbable outcome.

Open thread for all things midterm elections, any other elections at home and abroad, etc. I probably won’t offer up a thread for every midterm primary, but as this is a big one that kicks of the season I thought it was worth a post. Next up on the election calendar, later this week: national elections in Nepal.