Christmas NFL/NBA Open Thread
By 
Whatever one thinks of how the NFL season has played out, the big winner today is the National Basketball Association, as the NFL scheduled three games that looked good-to-excellent on paper and have minor-to-no significance in practice, except for those of us in our fantasy finals (personal to Dan Campbell: pound that rock! The season ain’t over ’till it’s over!)
For your relevant Christmas reading, Nora Princiotti on the (temporary at least) Fall of the House of Mahomes:
If there is good news for Kansas City here, it is that this lost season may serve as a needed wake-up call about the state of the roster. Outside of retooling the offensive line—highlighted by the selection of left tackle Josh Simmons in the first round of the draft—Reid and general manager Brett Veach did not make many significant changes last offseason and instead relied on continuity. That could be a reasonable reaction to three consecutive Super Bowl trips, but perhaps they were overlooking the number of lucky bounces it took to get the Chiefs there. Kansas City’s 11 wins in one-score games last year were the most in a season in NFL history, but that luck regressed in serious fashion this year. The Chiefs’ record in one-score games is currently 1-7, worst in the NFL, despite the fact that their plus-60-point differential is actually better than last year’s team’s.
There should be some comfort in that, but this is still a roster with clear holes. Over the course of the past couple of seasons, the Chiefs have transformed from a team that wins with explosive offense to one that’s reliant on defense and efficiency. The lack of speed and playmaking has become a clear weakness that’s been exploited by opponents. It’s darkly fitting that Mahomes’s season ended with a scramble as he desperately tried to create something out of nothing on a play in which he lacked good options downfield. This season, Mahomes has had career lows in completion percentage and completion percentage when pressured and a career high in rushing yards.
The Chargers’ defensive game plan succeeded on Sunday, and they won in the same way opponents like the Bills have beaten the Chiefs this year—they were able to get pressure on Mahomes without blitzing and covered Kansas City’s receivers one-on-one. Veach can’t let this roster go into next season without a better solution than this year’s plan, which was mainly to have Mahomes throw a lot of short, quick passes. According to Next Gen Stats and ESPN, Mahomes attempted 244 passes in less than 2.5 seconds this season, the most in the NFL. That could mean once again prioritizing better protection for Mahomes so that he is forced into fewer quick throws and scrambles, or finally adding receivers who are better at getting separation.
The bad news for Veach is that the Chiefs are currently near the bottom of the league in salary cap space, although they could clear at least $60 million in room by restructuring Mahomes’s contract and releasing penalty-prone right tackle Jawaan Taylor, who has a nearly $20 million non-guaranteed 2026 salary. The team should also have some answers for its receiver issues that are already on the roster. A true top boundary pass catcher would probably have to come via a trade, but because of injuries and Rashee Rice’s suspension to start the year, Mahomes rarely had a full complement of active pass catchers this season.Worthy’s usage and production (40 receptions, 491 yards, one touchdown) have been underwhelming given that the team hoped the speedy receiver would help make the team more explosive in his second season. Although Pro Football Focus’s charting has deemed him responsible for only one drop this season (in the game against Indianapolis, although he also dropped a deep pass in a high-profile moment against Dallas), he’s become a poster child for the ways this receiving corps has let Mahomes down. Per PFF, the Chiefs have 23 total drops so far this season, tied for the seventh most in the league. But it’s worth giving the 22-year-old receiver some time to develop and hoping that Reid and offensive coordinator Matt Nagy will take a closer look at how they’re using him. Worthy was often tasked with running complex routes over the middle, a big ask for his experience level and slight physical build. He’s also not been entirely healthy since suffering a dislocated shoulder from a collision with Kelce in Week 1. Still, it’s clear that Worthy is not on a WR1 trajectory and doesn’t have the size or consistency to be that kind of player. But the Chiefs can probably find better ways to maximize his skill set in the future.
Getting more explosive also has to mean fixing the run game. According to ESPN, the Chiefs entered Sunday’s game against the Chargers with the lowest explosive run rate, meaning plays of 20 yards or more, on running back carries in all seasons since 2000. This stems from Reid and Nagy’s reliance on shotgun runs and RPOs as the bread and butter of this part of their run scheme, something that’s drawn a lot of criticism from analysts this season. In terms of personnel, Kansas City may be due for a much-needed running back overhaul; Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt, and Elijah Mitchell are all set to hit free agency.
My guess is that the Chiefs will be back as contenders next year, but…Reid is pushing 70, Kelce is presumably gone, Mahomes is 30, and we’re seeing just how weak the non-Mahomes roster is vividly. They have work to do. It will also be interesting to see which AFC team actually seizes the opportunity this year.