Gaming out 2028 and the SCOTUS

Something that couldn’t be more obvious at this point is that Donald Trump being on the ticket is critical to Republican election chances. Trump brings out low propensity voters, especially uneducated white and Latino male voters, that other Republicans don’t inspire to vote.

One possible concern about the forthcoming tariff decision is that, by ruling against Trump, in part or wholly, Roberts & Co. may think they’re buying themselves some cover for giving what Trump and the Republican party are likely to be desperate for, if the 2026 elections go anything at all like last night, despite all the gerrymandering and voter suppression attempts.

And what that will be will be a ruling that the SCOTUS doesn’t have the legal authority from blocking Trump from running in 2028. The arguments that can be made in that vein are beyond absurd, but I guarantee you they’ll be good enough for the Jed Rubenfelds of the world to scratch their chins and say you know I really didn’t think Trump had an argument here, but if you squint at it just right you could argue blah blah blah.

Obviously this is all very speculative at this point. Trump’s health may well be a big wild card, and who knows what else will happen, but anybody who thinks five members of THIS SCOTUS will definitely not pull off Bush v. Gore II Electric Boogaloo is whistling past the graveyard full of indispensable men and their legal doctrines.

If this happens, it should mark the end of any shred of remaining legitimacy for the SCOTUS, and the prelude to the razing of the institution so that no stone of it is left standing, assuming Trump and the GOP’s defeat three years from now, by whatever means necessary.