College Football Week 13 Thread

This is always my favorite week of the year–when SEC teams play schools such as East Central West Virginia State and the Alabama College for the Blind the week before their rivalry games to close the season. Texas A&M is playing Stetson. Georgia is playing Charlotte. Alabama has a real tough matchup with Eastern Illinois. LSU takes on Western Kentucky. Auburn has Mercer. Brave! So this is usually not a first rate week in the season. But there’s some good games.

Top 10 games of the week, based on the Athletic’s rankings of teams from 1-136, in order of starting time:

1. #49 Florida State at #55 North Carolina State (+4.5), Friday 8, ESPN. The fact that this boring mediocre ACC game is a top 10 game for the week is indicative of the SEC abdicating playing meaningful football this week. Both teams are 5-5 and so are playing for a bowl, to the extent that each of them care. I don’t see Florida State at that much better than the Wolfpack on the road. They certainly haven’t proven it in the last two months and that Bama win is a long, long, long time ago. So I take NC State with the points at home.
2. #21 Missouri at #7 Oklahoma (-7.5), 12, ABC. Oklahoma coming off a big, big win against Bama, at home, against a good but not great Missouri team, with OU knowing they need to win out and make the playoffs. Missouri does run the ball very well, but Oklahoma is excellent against the run and Missouri is probably starting its backup QB. Yeah, I take the Sooners by more than a TD here. There’s a reasonable chance to think Missouri could beat this line if their starter at QB plays though. And I am sure I will get it wrong either way,
3. #27 Louisville at #25 SMU (-2.5), 12, ESPN2. A fun game against evenly matched teams. The ACC is complete nonsense because it doesn’t actually have good teams except maybe Miami and Mario Cristobal always screws them up. Louisville beat Miami, so it can certainly beat SMU. I’ll take the Cards as slight road dogs.
4. #44 Minnesota at #58 Northwestern (-3.5), 12, BigTen. Another extremely mediocre game rising due to the SEC issue. Minnesota has a winning record but if you look deeper into it, they’ve lost to every good team they’ve played and barely beat the bad teams. Northwestern isn’t necessarily that much stronger, but I do like them at home by more than a field goal.
5. #51 Baylor at #31 Arizona (-6.5), 1, TNT. Out of nowhere, Arizona has had a really good season. Baylor is pretty mediocre, with a really terrible defense. Playing in Tucson against a resurgent Wildcat team, give me Arizona by a TD.
6. #16 USC at #11 Oregon (-9.5), 3:30, CBS. This spread does seem wide, but I am not convinced USC is that good. Mostly, I just don’t see how they are going to stop Oregon. They can score, no doubt. But their defense isn’t very good and Oregon’s is very good. There are some pickers who think USC will score points, but no one has scored much on Oregon. So I take the Ducks.
7. #48 Kentucky at #15 Vanderbilt (-9.5) 3:30, ESPN. For most of the year, it felt like Kentucky really sucked. Then they got to be kinda OK. But they aren’t Vandy. Still 10 points is a lot. I think Kentucky can keep it close on the road. Both teams have a lot to play for, which is rare in this series.
8. #47 TCU at #22 Houston (-1.5), 4, FOX. I don’t see why this spread is so close. For that matter, the line is continually moving toward TCU. Look, Houston isn’t that great. But TCU has also dropped their last two games. This feels like nonsense to me so I am going Houston.
9. #30 Pitt at #17 Georgia Tech (-2.5), 7, ESPN. I don’t love Georgia Tech, but Pitt played pretty poorly against Notre Dame. Mostly, the issue is that Pitt isn’t good against the run and that’s just about all Georgia Tech does. So I take Tech at home by a FG.
10. #12 BYU at #32 Cincinnati (+2.5), 8, FOX. BYU might be overrated a bit, but then you look at their record and other than getting hammered against an excellent Texas Tech team, they’ve been pretty solid all year. Certainly more than the Bearcats, who have had inconsistency. BYU should win this on the road.

Now, as this season has shown, I don’t know a damn thing about picking games. Good thing I think betting is evil and stupid. Otherwise, I’d be losing money, at least given that the books take a cut too. After starting last week 0-5, I won the last 5, so went 5-5, for a total of 62-62 on the season.