College Football Week 12 Thread

The first college football playoff rankings are in and…..they seem pretty normal to me. Even Oregon fans weren’t too upset about being ranked #9. It isn’t really their fault that Penn State collapsed after Oregon beat them and so that win is devalued and their next best win is Northwestern. Win out and they are in, lose and they don’t really deserve to be over 2 loss teams with better schedules. The schedule isn’t their fault–Oklahoma State cratering and missing Ohio State and Michigan in conference this year is just one of those things. Meanwhile, more Power 4 teams fire their coaches in a year with few obvious hot candidates to move up into these jobs. And really, who would want the Auburn job compared to LSU, Penn State, or Florida? It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out. Meanwhile, Colorado under Coach Prime has completely collapsed in an extremely predictable scenario. Turns out thinking you are too cool to recruit high school students doesn’t work in building a team. Who knew!

Anyway, top 10 games of the week, based on the Athletic 1-136 rankings, in order of when the games start. It’s not a great week and tons of teams have byes, but there’s a few pretty high quality games. Still, I had to go down to #52 to get 10 matchups, which I am pretty sure is even worse than the questionable schedules of week 2 and 3 of the season. First two of these games are on Friday, so you can already see how bad I am at picking college games even before the Saturday games start.

1. #38 Tulane at #24 Memphis (-3.5), 9, Friday, ESPN. This is a key AAC game and one of the better games in the smaller conferences this year. The loser of this game is effectively eliminated from the conference title game and thus the playoffs. So this is pretty big. Tulane is excellent offensively and alright at best defensively. So the question becomes whether Memphis can outscore the Green Wave. Expect a lot of points and I will take Memphis with the points because they are at home. (Sat update: Nope!)
2. #52 Northwestern at #19 USC (-14.5), 9, Friday, FOX. This feels like a big line to me because Northwestern is a decent team. But USC is playing very well and Northwestern has only won once on the road this year. Of course, the Coliseum doesn’t exactly provide a massive home field advantage at the best of times. Neither defense is super, but USC’s offense is definitely superior and I think they will win this going away. It’s been a pretty nice year for Northwestern though and that program is moving in the right direction. But I’d be surprised if this is their night. (Sat update: Yep!)
3. #8 BYU at # 7 Texas Tech (-10.5), 12, ABC. This is the best game of the week. I like both teams. Texas Tech is probably better. But they are also super banged up at QB–the starter is hobbled, the backup is out for the season. Texas Tech purchased a beast of a defensive line and they’ve proven out. Texas Tech turns the ball over a bit too much and the BYU defense is opportunistic. Sounds windy too. So while I think Tech wins, I like BYU on the points.
4. #5 Georgia at #44 Mississippi State (+8.5), 12, ESPN. Georgia is going to whoop the Bulldogs. This doesn’t seem close to me. Georgia is a far superior team. MSU is OK. Georgia by two TDs.
5. #3 Texas A&M at #20 Missouri (+6.5), 3:30, ABC. This could be a good upset opportunity. Missouri is not a bad team. But A&M really does seem to be the real deal for once. While I’ve never seen a good A&M not blow it in my entire life and it might happen again this year, I like A&M to cover on the road.
6. #9 Oregon at #26 Iowa (+6.5), 3:30, CBS. The rhetoric around this game has gotten a little weird. No one really believes in Oregon because they lost at home to Indiana and haven’t really beaten anyone good if you don’t count what Penn State was when they beat them in State College. Oregon taking the life out of Penn State and leading them to give up on their coach should still count for something, no? Meanwhile, Oregon didn’t dominate Wisconsin two weeks ago like expected. But the weather in that game was really, really rough. Now, Iowa is pretty good, despite an atrocious passing game. They are tough to beat on the road in November. But it feels like the type of game we frequently see, where all the smart people decide this is upset city and then the favorite goes in and wins by 3 TDs. While I am extremely biased here, I am saying this is that game and Oregon wins by more than a TD. And if they don’t? Well, then it proves the Ducks aren’t really that good and maybe that’s true.
7. #48 Iowa State at #32 TCU (-6.5), 3:30, FOX. The Cyclones were 5-0 and have since fallen apart. Their defense isn’t good. TCU finishes the job by more than a TD.
8. #40 Wake Forest at #15 Virginia (-6.5), 7, ESPN. OK, here’s the thing. Virginia is fun. But if you dive into their schedule, they are incredibly lucky. They started the season beating up on no ones, OK cool. But every win since has been a total coin toss that they keep winning. That can’t continue forever. I think Wake Forest at least comes close to winning. Maybe Virginia wins in another coin toss, but they’ve barely beaten anyone in the last month by a TD. So Wake +6.5 here.
9. #37 LSU at #4 Alabama (-10.5), 7:30, ABC. I confess I don’t completely believe in Bama. And it would be hilarious for LSU to revive itself after firing Brian Kelly. But I sure am hell aren’t going to bet on it. So Bama pretty easy seems solid.
10. #45 Navy at #12 Notre Dame (-25.5), NBC. Navy had a cute little run. North Texas showed everyone that’s all they are. Notre Dame in a romp, including covering this sizable line.

Last week I was 5-5, making me 51-53 on the season. Can I get to .500? Unlikely!