You still do not have to hand it to Donald Trump

Ross Douthat is back to praise Donald Trump’s foreign policy with a trademark combination of post hoc propter hoc fallacies, cherry-picking, and hand-waving:

But on the world stage he is currently much more successful (allowing, yes, for strong skepticism about the administration’s China strategy).

If peace in Ukraine remains elusive…

Other than his total failure to stop the war in Ukraine (a much bigger black mark on Biden for reasons) and the fact a major element of his foreign policy is imposing arbitrary regressive taxes on the American public, this production of My American Cousin was great! But here’s the meat of it, and needless to say here he’s far from alone:

And now there is the possibility of a real breakthrough in Israel and Palestine, an achievement that’s clearly the result of the White House’s strong-arming diplomatic efforts.

It is, in fact, far from obvious that Trump’s “strong-arming” as opposed to the perceived interests of the Israeli and Hamas leadership is the key variable here, and if it was it’s hard to explain why 8 months of brutal warfare and starvation happened in the meantime. But that aside, note the weaselly “possibility of a real breakthrough” wording, meant to get around the plain fact that nothing has been accomplished that didn’t happen under the Biden administration:

There were at least two ceasefires under Biden! In which more than five times as many living Israeli hostages were released in exchange for 240 Palestinians! Has everyone forgotten this?

[image or embed]— Jonathan M. Katz (@katz.theracket.news) Oct 13, 2025 at 9:08 AM

“Yeah but there was no final status negotiated under those” There’s no final status agreement now either “Yeah but those were temporary” This one hasn’t even been in force for a week “But this time Bibi promises it’s for real!” [stares]— Jonathan M. Katz (@katz.theracket.news) Oct 13, 2025 at 9:14 AM

As of now, Trump has accomplished less — fewer released hostages, less ceasefire time — than Biden’s notably low bar. So the case for Trump rests entirely on the “potential” part. But what exactly is the potential here? Hamas has not disarmed. Netanyahu is still in power. Israel is still expanding in the West Bank. The plans for governance in Gaza could be generously described as half-assed. An agreement on a Palestinian state is further away that it’s ever been.

When Trump actually accomplishes something new, let me know. As of now, he’s just getting credit for dreams and because people of various ideological persuasions are desperate to give him preemptive credit because he’s not a Democrat. Same as it ever was.

…the war is over, with notably rare possible exceptions:

Trump: "We have told Hamas we want disarm. And they will disarm. And if they don't disarm, we will disarm them. And it will happen quickly and perhaps violently. But they will disarm. Do you understand me?"

[image or embed]— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) Oct 14, 2025 at 11:28 AM

The case for Trump the Peace Man rests entirely on assuming things that haven’t happened yet and show no particular sign of happening have already happened.