Election of the Day
By 
Javier Milei is not on the ballot today; this is something of an American-style midterm election. But of course his agenda and leadership, and assessments thereof, will obviously play a major role in today’s outcome. As with the US, 1/3 of the Argentinian Senate is up. Argentina has 24 Senate provinces, 8 of which are up every six years. Each province elects 3 senators, on “2 to the first place party, 1 to second place” basis. Unlike the US, only half of the lower house is up for election, which amounts to anywhere from 2 to 35 seats in each province. The chamber of deputies are elected by Party list PR, with a 3% threshold (that is irrelevant everywhere but Buenos Aires).
Milei’s win two years ago could reasonably be interpreted as a turn away from tradition and towards something new in Argentinian politics, but the last few months have show that Milei is, like the mainstream parties he defeated, absolutely dreadful at managing the national economy, which is about as mainstream Argentinian as it gets. He was able to leverage an advantage no other Argentinian political faction could hope to do, leveraging his years of obsequious flattery of Donald Trump into a substantial financial bailout. It’s not clear he’s getting a substantial amount of credit for this, however; as his coalition list, La Libertad Avanza, which has held a solid lead until recently, has declined slightly as Union for the Homeland, the left/center-left Peronist coalition, has surged into a virtual tie and possibly a small lead. There are smaller parties with some support, but few of them seem likely to get enough supports to win seats, outside of Buenos Aires and maybe a few other larger constituencies where 10-12% might get you a seat. We shall know soon if voters decide it’s time to trim Milei’s sails a bit more; results are hours away. I’m seeing some chatter on twitter about low turnout, but it’s not clear to me who that benefits.
