Election of the Day #2: Jamaica

Joining St. Helena today is Jamaica, where elections will be held for all 63 single member district parliamentary seats. Andrew Holness, current Prime Minister and leader of the Jamaican Labour Party, is attempting to become the second individual to win three consecutive terms as Prime Minister in Jamaican history. Holness first became Prime Minister in late 2011, when scandal-ridden Bruce Golding resigned and he stepped into the role. Wanting a mandate of his own, he promptly called elections, but was unable to get out from under his unpopular predecessor. Portia Simpson-Miller’s People’s National Party won by 17% nationwide winning 42 seats to JLP’s 21. Holness retained his seat and remained the leader of the opposition, returning to power in a narrow squeaker in 2016 (.4%, 32-31 on seats). In 2020, he expanded his majority significantly, winning by 14% nationwide and picking up 49/63, with the PNP getting the rest. This election saw the lowest turnout (38%) in nearly half a century in Jamaica, presumably in no small part due to the ongoing COVID pandemic and dengue fever outbreak.

The JLP and PNP have been the only parties of significance since universal suffrage came to Jamaica in 1944. Attempting to discern these party’s politics from clues found in their names would lead one astray; the JLP is the party of the right in Jamaica, having strayed a great deal from their Fabian origins, while PNP is on the center-left. Holness’s opponent is Mark Golding, Minister of Justice under Simpson-Miller while serving in Jamaica’s Senate. (The Senate in Jamaica is a relatively powerless 21 member body, appointed by the Governor general. Traditionally 13 members are appointed on advice of the Prime Minister, and 8 by the leader of the opposition. Senators can serve in any cabinet role other than PM or Finance, so appointments to the senate are how PMs can get non-MPs in their cabinet). After his party’s loss in 2016, he won a by-election and became an MP in 2017, and has been leader of the opposition after his party’s crushing defeat in 2020.

Holness has some genuinely impressive accomplishments, and he while his party is on the right he hasn’t been beholden to right wing dogma. In the post-pandemic era, Jamaica has seen impressive reductions in poverty rates, in part due to a strong economy and in part due to some welfare state expansion and minimum wage increases. Going further on the minimum wage has been central to his campaign. He has been neither a Trump critic nor booster, and he’s generally maintained a professional diplomat’s tone. When Rubio visited in March, he firmly defended his participation in a program that sends Cuban-trained doctors to Caribbean countries with a shortage of medical professionals, which the Trump administration had been sharply critical of, while convincing Rubio to downgrade the US travel advisory from level 3 (“reconsider travel”) to level 2 (“exercise increased caution”), reflecting significant recent reductions in violent crime.

If polls are to be believed Holness and the JLP may be modest underdogs. This is a big if, as polling has been sparse, but the last two polls I can find show a narrow PNP lead with a large number of undecideds. (Another data point; PNP narrowly outperformed the JLP last year in local elections.) Golding’s PNP manifesto seems pretty similar to Holness’s; indeed he acknowledges the impressive accomplishments of the last decade while arguing the fruits of these economically successful years could and should be more equitably distributed in Jamaican society.

The only other party contesting a significant number of seats is the Jamaican Progressive Party (JPP), founded just before the 2020 election, but too late to field candidates. In keeping with what is apparently a Jamaican tradition, many of their positions don’t appear particularly progressive, particularly the elimination of income tax and paying off the entire national debt in the first 90 days in office. They’ve also pledged to raise the minimum wage, like the 2 major parties, cancel all student debt, and give large raises to public sector workers. This party apparently has ties to some evangelical leaders and movements in Jamaica, but coverage of their campaign suggests any social conservative or religious elements to their agenda have not been prominent in the campaign. It’s unclear (to me, anyway) which main party they’d be drawing from and hurting, should they get any significant vote share.