Election of the Day II: Venezuela

Two countries to the West of Suriname, a second election is taking place today. Venezuela is holding an election for their national assembly. Unlike Suriname’s messy democracy, there’s nothing democratic about this election at all. Opposition groups are calling for a boycott. Maduro’s regime isn’t going to allow an electoral result that diminishes their hold on power, as they made clear in the fraudulent 2024 victory. What’s notable about this election relates to the 2023 plebiscite Maduro ran to give cover to his irredentist ambition. Venezuela is apparently holding elections in the Essequibo region of Guyana:

Mr. Maduro is using the vote in Essequibo to stir nationalistic sentiment and build support for his government, said Benigno Alarcón, the director of a research center at Andrés Bello Catholic University in Caracas, which conducts voter surveys.

Claims to the Essequibo region are deeply ingrained among many Venezuelans who believe the land was historically theirs under Spanish colonial rule and do not consider a 19th-century agreement that ceded the area to Guyana as legitimate.

The Essequibo election “is a way of trying to unify the people and especially the armed forces against a common enemy,” Mr. Alarcón said.

But most people who live in Essequibo speak English, identify culturally as Guyanese and say they want to remain part of Guyana — the only country most have ever known. Even under Spanish rule it was considered a remote outpost. Across Guyana, shops and cars are plastered with stickers proclaiming the country’s ownership of Essequibo.

In recent years, Mr. Maduro has ramped up claims to the region, which comprises about two-thirds of Guyana and includes enormous offshore oil blocks where Exxon Mobil is expanding production.

Now Mr. Maduro is again stoking a geopolitical crisis as a way to shift the domestic conversation, analysts said.

While most Venezuelans favor taking back the Essequibo, Mr. Alarcón said their trust in the government’s intentions and capacity to do so was low.

The same oil boom that Suriname is anticipating is relevant here; with the territory comes extensive untapped oil rights. Given their catastrophic mismanagement of the economy, Maduro badly needs it. Guyanese president Ifraan Ali has denounced this move, encouraged indigenous communities to be vigilant and report unauthorized elections, and warned that voting in this election would be considered an act of treason. Guyana is understandably wary of any effort to physically prevent this scheme, as it might lead to dangerous escalation. This stunt is probably better understood as an effort to whip up some nationalistic sentiment among Venezuelans, rather than convince Essequibans they should want to be Venezuelans. Regardless, here’s hoping today’s sham is a failure on both fronts.