NBA/NHL playoffs open thread

I will leave NBA picks to the crowd, but I cannot resist this coda to a refreshing story of comprehensive incompetence that isn’t about Trump:

the cameraman is WILD for immediately cutting to nico after AD hobbled to the bench

[image or embed]— Molly Morrison (@mollyhannahm.bsky.social) April 18, 2025 at 8:49 PM

“We have to trade Luka RIGHT NOW, to the first team that asks, because what if in 2031 he turns into a broken-down 32-year-old who can’t get through two half-playoff games without hobbling off the court? What then? CHECKMATE MAVS FANS!”

For the NHL:

Leafs over Senators in 6: tempted to make this my upset pick — the Leafs have declined as a possession team despite finally winning the division, and Ullmark has been excellent since getting his feet wet, but I think Ottawa is at least a year away.

Lightning over Panthers in 7: This has become such a trendy pick I’d like to go another way, and Florida has the talent to repeat. But I think the concerns about Florida’s health after to finals runs are legitimate, Seth Jones has been mostly awful in Florida, and the half-reconstructed Lightning check more of Dom’s contender boxes than anyone (BriseBois deserves a lot of credit for not being sentimental about Stamkos.)

Canadiens over Capitals in 7: What the hell. The Capitals are a great story but like the Rangers last year aren’t nearly as good as their record, and Montembault has quietly been the kind of goalie who could allow 2010 to repeat itself, so I’ll make this my upset special.

Hurricanes over Devils in 5: With Hughes out, the least interesting first round series. Jersey would need Markstrom to stand on his head to have a chance, and not only has he had a rough second half the last time we saw him in the post-season he left me with permanent nightmares, and not because I was rooting against him.

Jets over Blues in 5: I’m a little dubious about the Jets further on down the road, though I’ll be rooting for them. But unlike Washington they’re a legit 1 seed and without Holloway I don’t think St. Louis will have the horses despite their post-Montgomery surge.

Avalanche over Stars in 6: The Stars were betting favorites for the Cup as recently as 2 weeks ago and I didn’t get it — without Heiskanen I think they’re screwed. (Ceci? Lyubushkin? Dumba? Against the speed of the Avs? No bueno.) The market caught up before I could bet on the Avs, and then Robertson got hurt — I don’t think this is Dallas’s year despite adding Rantanen.

Knights over Wild in 5: Yawn.

Oilers over Kings in 6: I’ve been dreading round 4 all year for obvious reasons, but it’s actually a pretty interesting matchup on paper — the Oilers have two inner-circle Hall of Famers and perhaps the most underrated defenseman in the league, backed up by a Just Remember Some Guys blog made unnecessarily older and slower in part because they let McDavid’s former agent run the team for a few weeks for some reason. The Kings have impressive depth and suffocating defense but lack star power. In the playoffs I think you have to bet on the front line talent, and I’ll believe LA’s structure will hold up against 97 and 29 when I see it. I will say, though, that the Kings have become good enough that the Oilers won’t survive (Stuart) Skinner shitting the bed like they did against Vancouver last year. At a minimum, should at least be a fun series for people who aren’t me for once.