Ukrainian Elections
By 
The electoral landscape of Ukraine has changed a bit over the past six weeks…
Government sources say Mr Zelensky called a meeting last week to task his team with organising a vote after a full ceasefire, which the Americans believe they could impose by late April (Easter Sunday, April 20th, would have a certain resonance). The first confirmation of one may come in the run-up to or on May 5th, the deadline for a parliamentary vote to extend martial law, which expires on May 8th. Cancelling martial law is a necessary first stage to start an election process. The sources differ on the exact timeline, but most say Mr Zelensky is aiming for summer. The law requires at least 60 days for campaigning, so the earliest possibility would be early July. But some sources say the campaign would have to last three months: this is the time election authorities have reportedly told parliament that they require to reconstitute voter lists in the middle of war.
Petro Poroshenko, the leader of the largest opposition party and a sworn foe of Mr Zelensky, predicts elections could come “any time from August to October”. He claims the campaign started, in fact, with Mr Zelensky’s controversial decision to place him under sanctions in February. The move was reportedly linked to his long-running trial for alleged treason, but some believe that Mr Poroshenko’s trip to America in early February—where he met with some of Mr Trump’s people—lit the fuse. The former president says Mr Zelensky’s aides warned him not to go, but ascribed this to their “schizophrenia…and paranoia”. The sanctions were meant to do two things, he continues: rule out his candidacy, and warn off Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s former top general and the one man with a good chance of beating Mr Zelensky should he decide to run. A senior government source privately says Mr Poroshenko “both overestimates and underestimates his importance”. The former president does not represent any serious threat, but Mr Zelensky’s venomous dislike of Mr Poroshenko speeded up the sanctions decision.
That official thinks Mr Zelensky will try to catch rivals off guard with a July election, hoping that a short timetable would let him run unopposed. Such a turn would benefit not only the president, the source argues: “A long campaign would tear the country apart.” In fact, a rushed vote risks worsening the already bitter relations between the powerful, centralised presidential office and the rest of Ukraine’s political world.
Opposition leaders insist that a quick vote is impossible, pointing to a mass of logistical hurdles. Achieving a workable ceasefire in time for May 8th would be difficult enough, says Serhiy Vlasenko, a senior lawmaker with the Batkivshchyna party.
The idea of a late April cease-fire seems, erm… optimistic to me? But I suppose that everyone needs to be prepared.
Some other links:
- New York Times deep dive into US-Ukraine cooperation will require some time to digest…
- The minerals deal is bad if it doesn’t come with concrete security guarantees… and it doesn’t.
- Anglo-French nuclear cooperation on the table…
- Exile is no guarantee of safety.
- On the evolution of the F-47.
- Japan’s defense industry plays catchup.