The caudillo comes north
By 
Here are some exit poll numbers from the presidential election. I don’t know how good these are, but the general outline looks pretty striking, and the exact contours will be clearer as more data are collected and analyzed:
Shift in percentage voting Biden/Harris in 2020 to Trump in 2024
18-29 year olds: Trump +7
30-44: +1
45-64: +4
65+: -2
Again this is the percentage shift toward or away from Trump, not the percentage vote Trump got in that demo.
Black men +2/Black women -2
Latino men +18/Latino women +9
White men -1/White women -2
All other races: +9
Rural +7
Suburban +3
Urban: No change
No college degree: +6
College graduate: -1
We can speculate about why Trump did so much better among Latino voters in 2024 than in 2020, but one thing that’s screamingly obvious is that over the top racist rhetoric about immigration certainly doesn’t hurt Trump among Latinos (who are a collection of diverse ethnic and national origin groups, but still).
His surge among young voters is also striking, although I’d like to see the gender breakdown in that demographic as well — I suspect the surge is almost wholly driven by young men.
Still, some notes for next time:
Harris outspent Trump by about 30%
Other things that intuitively were supposed to make a huge difference and apparently didn’t:
GOTV organization and efforts
ETA: Murc makes a good point worth keeping in mind:
On what basis are you making the case that GOTV organization and efforts didn’t make a big difference?
In the battleground states the national swing towards Trump was between two and four points less than it was anywhere else. The only things different in the battleground states were advertising, campaign presence, and GOTV efforts.
Two to four points is a big difference.
I keep seeing people say “2024 is proof traditional campaign activities don’t matter” when it seems to be a nearly unanswerable case for the opposite. This was an ideal test case; a campaign doing all the traditional stuff at a high level against total incompetents. The results seem informative.
Two to four points in swing states is a very big difference.
Reproductive rights and the women’s vote
Openly fascist rallies
Total incoherence, both at the level of policy and that of personal self-presentation