Harris leading outright in final Selzer poll
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The final Des Moines Register poll has Harris in the lead in a state Trump won by 10 and then 8 points:
Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump in Iowa — a startling reversal for Democrats and Republicans who have all but written off the state’s presidential contest as a certain Trump victory.
A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Vice President Harris leading former President Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters just days before a high-stakes election that appears deadlocked in key battleground states.
The results follow a September Iowa Poll that showed Trump with a 4-point lead over Harris and a June Iowa Poll showing him with an 18-point lead over Democratic President Joe Biden, who was the presumed Democratic nominee at the time.
“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co. “She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”
That 21 point swing since June is another data point explaining why I have no patience for arguments that Harris isn’t running a good campaign.
For people who are unaware, Selzer has the most reliable record of any major political pollster in the US:
Final Selzer poll findings (and the actual result)
2022 Senate: R+12 (R+12)
2020 President: R+7 (R+8)
2020 Senate: R+4 (R+7)
2018 Governor: D+2 (R+3)
2016 President: R+7 (R+9)
2014 Senate: R+7 (R+8)
2012 President: D+5 (D+6)
About as good as any pollster gets. https://t.co/OfFO6ePDLy— Matthew Klein (@MattKleinOnline) November 2, 2024
This is not to say that I would predict that Harris will carry Iowa, but that’s not the key takeaway here — if Harris loses Iowa by two points, we’re most likely looking at a major pro-Trump polling error and Harris running the table on the battlegrounds. I don’t know if this will happen, of course, but I will say that assuming that because the polls underestimated Trump twice it’s highly likely that they will again are not very well-founded:
Don't count on polls underestimating Trump:
1. No party has ever been underestimated 3 pres. cycles in a row.
2. In 2020, right leaning polls correctly said averages were way off. In 2024, averages look a lot more like the right leaning polls.
3. 2022: Dems were underestimated. pic.twitter.com/yHetD2Bzbx— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 29, 2024
Trump can win, but the possibility that Roevember is coming is very real too.