Milton update
From Steve the hurricane guru:
It is heading northeast (030 on the compass scale where 0 is N, 90 is E). On that track it heads straight toward TB. It is supposed to make a turn to the ENE, so the official track makes for Sarasota. That would probably save TB from real surge trouble, while devastating Sarasota and south with 10-15′.
But it hasn’t turned yet, so TB can by no means sound the all clear. A delayed turn would bring Milton up to the mouth of the bay, and then it’s a different magnitude of total storm damage.
Shear is degrading the storm as predicted. Pressure has risen to 935mb at 1PM, max winds still 145 but that might be a little generous. The eyewall on the west (this shear is from the southwest) has opened up. Don’t think it can reform in this environment so the pressure should keep rising. Milton will probably lose another category or 2 before landfall. Given the shear situation, the strongest winds might actually be on the north eyewall. So given a threaded needle path, Tampa could actually get little surge but a lot of wind.
I’ve seen some estimates that insurance claims could end up in the $100 billion-$150 billion range, depending on the breaks.
. . . what a 15-foot storm surge looks like: