Home / General / Why is the gender split apparently largely limited to white voters?

Why is the gender split apparently largely limited to white voters?

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This new CNN/SSRS poll finds something that’s being reflected in a lot of other polls as well:

The gender divide in the poll is also more concentrated among White voters (White men break 58% Trump to 35% Harris, while White women split 50% Trump to 47% Harris), with very little gender divide among Black or Latino voters. Harris is well ahead among likely voters younger than 30 (55% support her to 38% who favor Trump), and among Black (79% Harris to 16% Trump) and Latino (59% Harris to 40% Trump) likely voters.

Those overall numbers for Black voters are, relatively speaking, surprisingly soft, so hopefully that’s a polling miss because of the MOE. (The MOE for the poll as a whole is 3% but it’s larger for subgroups).

Methodology: The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS from September 19-22 among a random national sample of 2,074 registered voters drawn from a probability-based panel. Surveys were either conducted online or by telephone with a live interviewer.

Results for likely voters include all registered voters interviewed for the poll weighted by their predicted probability of voting in the 2024 general election. Results among all likely voters have a margin of sampling error of ±3.0 percentage points.

I’m not a polling geek, but that’s an interesting choice to use all registered voters but then weigh their responses by estimated voting probability. It shouldn’t make that big difference compared to using likely voters, I would think, given that 92% of registered voters voted in the 2020 election.

Also too, despite the gender split among white voters, the majority of white women are probably still going to vote for Trump, which is one of the many amazing things about America 2024.

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