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Polls May Be Broken But…..


Biden down by 6 in the new CNN poll, which is about as good as polling gets, ain’t great!

Three-quarters of US voters say the Democratic Party would have a better shot at holding the presidency in 2024 with someone other than President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. His approval rating also has hit a new low following a shaky performance in the first debate of this year’s presidential campaign.

In a matchup between the presumptive major-party nominees, voters nationwide favor former President Donald Trump over Biden by 6 points, 49% to 43%, identical to the results of CNN’s national poll on the presidential race in April, and consistent with the lead Trump has held in CNN polling back to last fall.

There are some signs in the poll that each candidate has consolidated support among their own partisans in recent months, a period that has seen both Trump’s conviction on felony charges in a New York court and the first general election debate of the contest, though independents appear increasingly reluctant to support either man.

The poll also finds Vice President Kamala Harris within striking distance of Trump in a hypothetical matchup: 47% of registered voters support Trump, 45% Harris, a result within the margin of error that suggests there is no clear leader under such a scenario. Harris’ slightly stronger showing against Trump rests at least in part on broader support from women (50% of female voters back Harris over Trump vs. 44% for Biden against Trump) and independents (43% Harris vs. 34% Biden).

You all can convince yourself of what you want here, but Biden the weakest incumbent since at least Jimmy Carter. Even against Donald Trump, he is very likely to lose because no one thinks he can do the job. Me, I know the job is actually the advisors and appointees. I vote for the administration, not the person. But we have a public made up of people who think the president controls everything (which to be fair, includes the Supreme Court) and so Biden is responsible for Roe being overturned, the prices of eggs, and TNT losing the NBA.

Maybe there’s a way forward here. I claim no knowledge of what could happen between now and November. I am generally skeptical of the impact of debates, which are worthless anyway. I do know that Biden is historically weak and that at the very least Harris could do things like speak clear sentences. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party gerontocracy just continues along its merry way.

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