NFL Open Thread: Conference Championship Sunday

Chiefs at Ravens (-4.5) One salient point about this game: the Ravens are a great team. They are coming into this game with a weighted DVOA comparable to the ’85 Chiefs, the ’96 Packers, the ’91 R****ins, the ”89 49ers, like that. (If you are a Chiefs fan, you can take solace from the fact that the 2020 Bills are one of the few non-Super Bowl teams in this mix.) They played both of the teams appearing in the NFC Championship game and beat them by a combined score of 71-25. They’re outstanding offensively, defensively, and on special teams. Obviously, the Chiefs have the best QB in the game even though Baltimore’s will be the MVP and the best active coach. And despite the late missed field goal last week, to paraphrase Mike McDermott last week was not a bad beat for the Bills — they were outplayed, by a greater margin than the score suggests. I can see looking at that game and assuming that Mahomes is finally peaking at the right time. But that was against a decimated Bills defense that couldn’t rush the passer or protect the middle of the field at all. This is a step up in class, and while nobody is going to be shocked if the Chiefs win this line should be at least a couple points higher.

Lions at Niners (-7.5) Like all civilized people I will be cheering for the Lions. Is there a scenario in which they win? Sure:

• The Lions run the ball well behind an excellent offensive line, and while the 49ers run defense isn’t bad it’s the weakest component of the team. The Lions are going to have to reduce the number of possessions to have a chance and they might be able to.
• As long as the weather conditions are good (which apparently they will be) and Kyle Shanahan is creating the game plan and calling the plays (as best as I can determine) and the Niners collection of All-Pros is healthy, the question of how good Brock Purdy would be with another offense is moot. (One quibble with that otherwise excellent piece — as Nora Princiotti points out, while Purdy’s performance has been better than Garoppolo’s was, if you compare it to Garoppolo when he had Christian McCaffrey it’s pretty much the same. It wasn’t a huge sample and subjectively I would rather have Purdy, but apples-to-apples there’s not a significant gap.) But if Deebo is far from 100% and has to leave the game, or if something happens to McCaffrey (who had to leave week 17 early and looked uncomfortable on the sidelines at times last week) or Williams…history would indicate that Purdy’s limitations will become very material.
• If the Lions can keep it close, Shanahan is a poor in-game manager (who damn near cost his team yet another playoff game by screwing up his last possession of the first half last week) while Campbell plays the percentages well while also not playing not to lose.

Does that mean I would take the points here? Nah. The Lions have a weak secondary and a one-person pass rush Shanahan should be able to scheme around and Purdy evade pretty easily. A gimpy Baker Mayfield just threw for 349 yards against them, and the run defense was surprisingly vulnerable against a bunch of randos who ain’t McCaffrey. The Lions are not going to be able to stop the intact version of the Niners offense. And the biggest strength of the Niners defense — not accidentally, the mirror image of their offense — is protecting against passes between the hashmarks, Detroit’s bread and butter. Basically, to bet on the Lions you’d have to be betting on key Niners players getting hurt, and while it’s possible it seems unwise.

My actual “playing with house money because that is definitely not a logic that has even led to poor choices” bets before I left Vegas last weekend: Ravens +210 to win the Super Bowl, Niners (-7, +100) today. PROVE ME WRONG LIONS. Enjoy!