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Eyes on the prize

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Here’s how you use outlier polls to generate clickbait. Part I:

Republican firebrand Rep. Lauren Boebert is dangerously close to being upset by a little-known Democratic rival, a new poll in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District shows.

By the numbers: Boebert received support from 47% of likely voters, while Democrat Adam Frisch landed at 45% — making the race a statistical tie within the ±4.4 percentage point margin of error.

7% of voters are undecided, per the poll.

The survey, taken Sept. 29–Oct. 2 by Keating Research, a Democratic firm and one of the most accurate pollsters in Colorado, represents a 5-point swing toward Frisch. In July, Boebert held a 49%-42% advantage.

And Part II:

Yes, but: The 3rd District on Colorado’s Western Slope overwhelmingly favors Republicans, and the race is not considered competitive by national experts.

Boebert is a fundraising juggernaut and frequent surrogate supporter for Republican candidates across the country.

FiveThirtyEight gives Boebert a 98% chance of winning a second term.

The danger here is Dem small donors getting sucked into wasting money on races with shiny objects in R +6 districts rather than focusing on winnable races. If you’re giving, ignore this stuff and focus on marginal Senate races, where Republicans are going to flood the zone with money for the next month.

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