Russia-Ukraine Update

Just a few things not specifically related to Putin’s speech or to the annexations:

• Gotta be careful about evaluating polling in authoritarian countries, even when the methodology is sound.
• On Russian Yandex searches and what it might mean for the war…
• Some thoughts on whether the mobilization will backfire, both at home and on the front lines.
• Central Asian countries distancing themselves from Moscow’ war…
• Some indications that Chinese public opinion may be shifting against Moscow.
• Russia’s inability to defeat Ukraine’s air force isn’t shocking, exactly, but it does reveal deep-seated problems with Moscow’s military approach.

And at 1945 my general thoughts on the balance of advantage in the wake of the mobilization decision:

Putin resisted the decision to mobilize Russia’s warmaking capacity, probably out of concern that such a move would undercut support for the war at home. We should probably trust his political instincts; mobilizing is a dangerous move for the regime, which expected to win a war quickly and is now facing both protests and a mass exodus of military-age males. On the battlefield, it is not obvious that the mobilization will transform Moscow’s basic problem, which is that Ukrainian forces are growing stronger while Russian forces are growing weaker.