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People really hate Dobbs

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Not pictured: Josh Hawley’s friends, just out of frame, on the other side of the wall

While I would obviously be somewhat skeptical of the polling in state races — especially any poll showing Demmings ahead in Florida — both recent election results and polling on the issue suggests that people are really pissed off about the Supreme Court overruling Roe v. Wade:

While there are reasons to be skeptical of such favorable polling—especially given the failures of polls that overestimated Democratic chances in 2016 and 2020—it is in line with other recent trends showing Democrats moving even with—or even slightly ahead of—Republicans in the generic ballot for who the public favors to control Congress. It is also in line with a pair of recent House special elections where Democrats lost but vastly outperformed expected outcomes based on the 2020 presidential result.

Plus, this has all happened despite President Joe Biden’s abysmal approval ratings, which have, ticked up just a few points to about 40 percent approval. So, what explains the apparent shift? One highly plausible explanation for Democrats’ polling improvement can be found in the responses to additional questions included in a number of these latest polls: Democratic and Independent voters appear steamed over the Supreme Court’s decision in June to overturn Roe v. Wade and end constitutional protections for reproductive health care.

In the Wisconsin poll from Marquette Law School, for instance, 55 percent of voters said they were “very concerned” about abortion and 25 percent said they were “somewhat concerned.” In that same poll, 60 percent of voters opposed the Supreme Court’s decision to end the constitutional right and overturn Roe, with a full 62 percent of Independents opposing it. The poll also showed that 65 percent of Wisconsin voters thought abortion should be legal in all or most cases, compared to just 58 percent in the same survey in June before Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization was decided.

These trends are in line with other recent polls. In Tuesday’s favorable University of North Florida poll result for Demings, a full 51 percent of respondents said that Dobbs made them more likely to vote in November. This phenomenon was especially pronounced among Democrats, with 78 percent saying the decision made them more likely to vote in November. Further, 71 percent of Florida voters say they oppose a total abortion ban. “Without the protections of Roe, the likelihood of a strict or outright ban on abortion being introduced in Florida increases dramatically, and this looks to be mobilizing Democrats to the polls,” said Michael Binder, the faculty director of the research lab that conducted the poll.

This matches the nationwide trends. In a recent Fox News poll that had Democrats and Republicans tied 41-41 in the generic ballot, 55 percent disapproved of the Supreme Court’s job performance and 60 percent disapproved of the decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. In that same poll, there has also been a significant shift among women towards Democrats since May.

Finally, another poll released this week showed that Latino voters in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, and Pennsylvania considered abortion to be a top-5 issue for the first time ever. In that poll, conducted by two Latino civil rights organizations, 70 percent of respondents said abortion should be legal and Democrats held a 2-to-1 advantage over Republicans in the generic ballot.

If the U.S. held democratic elections everywhere Republicans would be in deep shit going forward. The anti-democratic features of American constitutionalism will help to mitigate the damage, but between the unpopular radicalism of the Supreme Court and their Trump-picked inept candidates it’s also increasingly clear we’re not going to get a 2010/2018-style blowout for the out-party either.

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