I’m at the AP Reading in Salt Lake City this week, so posting has been sparse. The war continues to grind on, with heavy fighting near Severodonetsk (where the Russians are trying to nip the tip off of a Ukrainian salient and the Ukrainians are resisting bitterly) and Kherson (where the Ukrainians seem to be positioning themselves for a big push). The Russians are making the most of their advantages in artillery, heavily prepping the battlefield before any advances. It does seem that the capture of much of the Donbas will end up being economically pointless, as infrastructure is being destroyed and cities have already emptied out. There remains no clear geographic or political logic for anticipating an end to the war.
- Interesting story on how the Ukrainians are getting equipment before getting training…
- Big debate right now on the legality of freezing vs. seizing Russian assets.
- Excellent discussion of Ukraine’s lack of preparation in the days immediately preceding the war.
- T-62s are back in the game!
- Is the Russia-Ukraine War a short war or a tall war?
Over at 1945, I have some thoughts on the maneuver/attrition dichotomy:
Thus, even though we’re in the midst of more than one campaign of attrition, it does not mean that nothing important is happening in the war. Either Russia or Ukraine could restore maneuver to the battlefield in spectacular ways, in part because of the impact of attrition. And the flow of Western equipment and supplies matters very much to Ukraine’s ability to hold its own during this phase of attrition, as well as to take advantage if maneuver returns to the battlefield.