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The End of Ambiguity

By 姚琢奇 (資深軍事記者, 亦曾任職勞工通訊社、美國合眾國際社(UPI)、英國路透社(REUTERS)。曾拍攝來台灣訪問的各國元首、採訪823砲戰在密集砲火中求生、搭乘軍用直昇機墜落山谷命大生還、拍過國際級的大明星等。他是台灣第一位乘坐過F-104戰鬥機的攝影記者,也是台灣第一位傳給國外彩色新聞照片的攝影記者。) – http://ccy1929.blogspot.com/2007/11/blog-post.html, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=15863636

Well here we go.

I’m not surprised, exactly; there’s been a lot of talk swirling in the past three months about what the Russian invasion of Ukraine means for Taiwan, and a lot of that talk has focused on whether ambiguity has become obsolete. The administration probably also knows more than I do about China’s interpretation of the Western response to the invasion. Still… BFD. My own sense is that the de facto security guarantee to Taiwan has been part of US policy for a good long while, and that this is happening because a) we’re no longer worried about the downside of ratcheting tensions up with China, and b) we are worried that China is developing the wrong kind of Ukraine-Taiwan analogy.

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