Well here we go.
I’m not surprised, exactly; there’s been a lot of talk swirling in the past three months about what the Russian invasion of Ukraine means for Taiwan, and a lot of that talk has focused on whether ambiguity has become obsolete. The administration probably also knows more than I do about China’s interpretation of the Western response to the invasion. Still… BFD. My own sense is that the de facto security guarantee to Taiwan has been part of US policy for a good long while, and that this is happening because a) we’re no longer worried about the downside of ratcheting tensions up with China, and b) we are worried that China is developing the wrong kind of Ukraine-Taiwan analogy.