Stuff Happens

In the last week, Russia has seen three serious fires and a burst dam. We need to be careful in seeing a pattern.

Seven died and a number of others were injured in the Aerospace Defense Research Institute near Moscow.

The Dmietrievsky chemical plant in Kineshma, 335 kilometers northeast of Moscow, was a major producer of industrial solvents.

The Russian Rocket and Spacecraft Scientific Center in Korolyov, Moscow Oblast

And a dam failed at a hydroelectric facility near Krasnodar. I am vaguely recalling another dam failure from a couple of weeks ago. The information on this failure is minimal.

Before jumping to conclusions, consider that Russia is a large place. Stuff happens. Infrastructure is maintained poorly. It’s possible that people are paying more attention to events like this than they were three months ago. Statistics tell us that random events can occur in clumps.

All of these are too far from Ukraine to be likely sabotage by Ukraine.

Paul Goble has been reporting for the past couple of years on continuing phoned-in bomb threats across Russia that have disrupted schools, shopping malls, and other public spaces. The perpetrators have not been identified. More evidence of resistance? Who knows?

The speculation, of course, is that an anti-Putin resistance may be forming. We’d all like to see that, but that desire is also the reason we might jump to the wrong conclusion. Wait for more information.

Cross-posted to Nuclear Diner