The Costs of the War
It’s hard to disagree with the conclusions here:
We are at the one-month mark into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and it looks like things are only set to get bloodier. Short of a sudden ceasefire and a robust peace deal, which some would argue seems less feasible with each passing day, the war will grind on. But regardless of if Russia achieves its military objectives in the country, it has already lost in nearly every conceivable way. What’s worse is what awaits them if they succeed in conquering Ukraine’s territory — an insurgency the likes of which we have never seen. It will be one funded by the richest nations on earth and run by hardened fighters in a country absolutely awash with advanced anti-armor and anti-aircraft weaponry. This, combined with a whole slew of other factors I detailed over three weeks ago — which are more relevant now than they were then — results in the conclusion that there is no conceivable path to a positive outcome to this conflict for Russia. It can win any battle and seize any city, but the reality is that the country has already lost.
Lawrence Freedman is not at all optimistic about an early end to this war:
On the Russian side we know that there is broad support for the war, as Sam discussed in his post on Russian popular opinion, but this is for a war that has been presented as being limited in intent and scope – in fact no more than a “special military operation” largely, although not solely, confined to the Donbas region. The Russian government also claims that the “special operation” is on schedule and going to plan, but even an information-deprived Russian does not need to read too far between the lines to realise that all is not well. They will know from their own experiences about the economic consequences of this war. But they will also know that dissent leads to trouble and so prudence requires that they stay quiet. If Russian ambitions are being scaled down, neither the elite nor the wider population have been prepared. If Putin is aware that he must back away from his maximalist demands then he has yet to show it.
Some thoughts on what the war is costing Russia:
How long can Russia afford to fight? The campaign of economic sanctions that have fallen upon the Russian economy was designed first as a deterrent, now as a punishment. It will have the effect of severely damaging Russian economic growth, cutting Russia off from some critical technology flows, and limiting the extent to which Russians can do business abroad. It may not, however, stop the Russians from continuing their war in Ukraine.
Also said kinda the same thing on Marketplace yesterday morning.
Also a Russian ship is on fire, one of the old “Alligator” class landing ships. Ukraine claims it hit the ship with a missile.