Russia-Ukraine Update
By 
The optimism of a couple days ago is rapidly fading.
The United States and Russia offered two starkly different versions of the reality on the ground surrounding Ukraine on Thursday, with the Kremlin offering its most detailed accounting so far of what it has described as a partial troop withdrawal, while America and its NATO allies said the Russian threat continued to grow.
President Biden said that the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine remained “very high,” and that he expected President Vladimir V. Putin to carry it out within several days.
“Every indication we have is they’re prepared to go into Ukraine,” he said.
Russia is accusing Ukraine of cease-fire violations, which seems unlikely to me given how cool the Ukrainians have played this entire situation.
Russia has filed a report with the United Nations alleging that Ukraine’s military has committed “crimes” against residents of the eastern Donbas region, according to documents viewed by The Wall Street Journal.
Russia separately expelled the No. 2 official at the U.S. Embassy in Moscow, Deputy Chief of Mission Bart Gorman, a State Department spokesman said Thursday.
As Cheryl has pointed out the information strategy of the US during the crisis has been to knock Russia off balance, but that probably can’t continue indefinitely. BTW we have a podcast coming out soon on the crisis.
Some other links:
- What do folks in the Donbas think about independence and annexation? Not much at all. But their Russian passports could end up being a big deal.
- The Russians have been building, unbuilding, and rebuilding pontoon bridges near Ukraine.
- Adam Tooze on the Ukrainian economy is indispensable. Why is Ukrainian growth so anemic? A combination of demographics, war, and institutions have made one of the world’s most productive agricultural areas relatively poor.
- I have a short piece at 1945 on what amounts to the military history of Ukraine in the 20th century. Long story short, lots of enormously destructive battles, and not just between the Russians and the Germans.