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Looking at the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections in Michigan

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I looked at the county-level results for the presidential election in my home state, which Trump won by 11,700 votes in 2016, and Biden won by 154,000 votes this year.

Where did Biden’s winning votes come from? The answer is from just a half dozen of Michigan’s 82 counties (Once again the soil broke very hard for Trump, as long as the queers hadn’t done enough things to it).

Biden increased his vote margin relative to Clinton by:

Ingham County: 9,500. (East Lansing, Michigan State)

Kalamazoo County: 11,000. (College town: Western Michigan, Kalamazoo College, a couple of others)

Kent County: 33,000. (Grand Rapids)

Oakland County: 54,000. (White collar Detroit suburbs)

Washtenaw County: 23,000. (Ann Arbor, University of Michigan)

Wayne County: 43,500. (Detroit)

That’s an 174,000-vote net swing, which represents slightly more than the 166,000-vote net swing for the state as a whole, meaning of course that the counties that voted for Trump in both elections actually gave him a wider margin over Biden in 2020 than they gave him over Clinton in 2016 (All the counties listed above went for Clinton in 2016, with the interesting exception of Kent, which went for Trump by 11,000 votes in 2016 and Biden for 22,000 votes in 2020).

Basically, Black people in general — 14% of the state — and college town/professional class suburban white people voted for Biden, and everybody else voted for Trump.

Demographically speaking, Michigan has an average number of four year college graduates (about 30%). Only about eight percent of Michigan’s population is either Latino or Asian-American, compared to 25% nationally.

I’m also going to write about a specific slice of the Trump vote in Michigan — the downmarket suburban/ex-urban white vote, which broke hard for Trump in both elections, and clearly was the difference for him in 2016 — but that statistical Cletus safari will be featured in another post.

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