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All in for Trump

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Feel free to speculate on who makes the cut:

Here are a few guesses:

Amy Comey Barrett

Neomi Rao

Josh Hawley

Allison Eid

Random Black or Latina woman no one has ever heard of

Anyway I was looking back at LGM posts from September of 2016, and was struck by how hesitant the GOP elites were to go all in for Trump, even just five weeks before election day. For example, this is from September 29th, after a disastrous debate performance (the quote embedded in the post is from a Salon piece by Gary Legum):

If you’re into schadenfreude (why do the Germans always come up with the best words for the most reprehensible things I wonder?) consider the present position of the GOP elites in re Littlefingers:

Early last week, if you squinted hard enough it was possible to see the Republican Party beginning to unite behind presidential nominee Donald Trump. It was not overwhelming support, nor was it the full-throated endorsement a partisan might want for the party’s nominee. It was more tepid, trending towards lukewarm. . .

Then came Monday night, and a Trump performance that ranked as likely the worst ever turned in by a major party nominee in a presidential debate. All of a sudden, you could not find anyone besides Rush Limbaugh and congressional back-benchers like Marsha Blackburn to defend the GOP’s standard bearer.

For example, RNC chairman Reince Priebus — who ahead of the debate tried his hardest to put a positive face on the pile of rotted orange peels in a suit that his party nominated by suggesting that 14 season finales of his reality show “The Apprentice” had prepared Trump for the debate — has been missing in action since Monday. His Twitter feed, which he has regularly used to slam Clinton, has been almost entirely silent.

GOP congressional leaders have said as little as possible. Paul Ryan, whose relationship with Trump has been tenuous, tried to have it both ways. He called the nominee’s performance “a unique Donald Trump response to the status quo” — but also suggested he should actually, you know, prepare for the next debate. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConell said Trump did “just fine,” which is what a Southerner says when he means the exact opposite.

The Republican leitership remains on the horns of an exquisite dilemma. If Trump appeared to have a good shot at winning they would of course be throwing their purported principles overboard faster than Usain Bolt being chased by a grizzly bear. Lesser of Two Evils, he can grow into the office, he doesn’t really mean any of that super-racist stuff, and so forth. Heck, Ted Cruz was already there a few days ago (what a thoroughly disgusting character he is — and don’t be surprised if he’s your 2020 nominee).

Conversely, if Trump looked like a sure loser they’d be “distancing” themselves in whatever way they would calculate was best suited to avoiding a downballot blowout, so that they could claim subsequently that they never really supported him anyway, that his nomination was some sort of one-off freak Orange Swan event, etc. (Paul Ryan has been preparing to pull this stunt for months, and he’s going to get away with it, just watch).

But instead they’re getting middled. Trump is probably going to lose, but it’s still far from a forgone conclusion. This is, from the GOP elites’ perspective, the worst possible situation in terms of their own unctuous groveling v. frantic ass-covering calculus.

It’s a lot of fun to watch if you’re into that sort of thing (Except for the whole “Trump could still win” downside, which is admittedly harshing my schadenfreude mellow).

Oh well!

The interesting (as in “horrifying”) thing today is that Trump is in a far worse position in all the polls than he was in September of 2016, but of course any hesitation to support him from anybody in the GOP is long gone.

This is for a bunch of reasons, some obvious, some not so much. Among them are:

(1) As president rather than a mere candidate, Trump is in a position to immediately punish dissenters.

(2) Four years of Trump has fully transformed the GOP into a cult of personality.

(3) It’s reasonable to suspect that Trump’s bad position in the polls could be overcome by huge amounts of voter suppression and outright election fraud.

(4) Magical thinking about winners, aka Trump is, despite the grim polls, somehow a “winner” — this is based on an N=1 in regard to his electoral history, but that’s why it’s magical thinking.

(5) After four straight years of increasingly humiliating bootlicking these people just aren’t in a position to do anything else, at least until the first week of November, where it will be discovered that none of them really supported Trump, and they always did their best to limit the damage he was doing to the Republican party. Trump of course is not really a Republican at all — not a lot of people know that right now, but it will be common knowledge soon enough, if the polls hold.

ETA: The people on the list he announced in 2016 are still part of the pool, so that includes Barrett and Eid. Hawley was one of the 20 new names, which included Ted Cruz and Tom Cotton. Trump demanded that Biden release his own list of candidates of course.

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