Super Tuesday Calculator
This is some interesting stuff (note that I have done unpaid consulting work for the Sanders campaign). As far as I can tell the scenario here is highly likely:
That’s allocating all of the states that seem very likely to go to Bernie, Biden, and Amy (Sanders has an outside shot in MN, which would help a lot). That leaves the key issues:
- Texas
- Virginia
- Biden reaching 15% in California
538 has Biden as a favorite in both Virginia and Texas at the moment, and the withdrawal of Mayor Pete would seem to make the 15% floor in California a foregone conclusion. Unfortunately, the mechanics of the sim are a bit clunky, but if you assign Texas and Virginia to Biden then he has a decided advantage the rest of the way. Here’s my projection, FWIW.