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How will the Trump presidency end?



The week marking the midway point of Trump’s term has been a complete catastrophe for him on several levels, so it seems like a good time to ask how this is all going to end.  Here are various scenarios, with my very loose estimate of how likely they are to happen.

(1) Re-elected to a second term.

10% chance.  Yeah presidents are usually re-elected, but he drew an inside straight the first time, his popularity seems to have maxed out in the low 40s and is currently trending well below that despite a “good” economy, and four years of non-stop incompetence and corruption have to count for something, even with our feckless media and reality-TV-addled culture.

(2) Loses 2020 election.

60% chance.  The sub-Riefenstahl rallies will be something to see, and are the biggest reason why he’s likely to carry on despite everything, but right now the fundamentals are just really bad for him.  The wild card is whether he can pull off some sort of splendid little war to Protect Our Freedoms, but my guess is that a solid 55% of the electorate is already inoculated against the effects of such an obvious ploy.

(3) Resigns prior to November 2020.

10% chance.  This scenario would feature a flurry pardons for the whole gang, and a tantrum-riddled exit, filled with invective toward the Deep State etc.  I can see it happening, if only because he must on many levels loathe the constraints of a job that does require some minimal level of showing up.

(4) Impeached and removed.

10% chance.  That’s probably high, but Mueller plus Republicans deciding that staying with him will end up being an even bigger disaster than dumping him makes this a real possibility, though a slim one.

(5) Something else altogether.

10% chance.

Many obvious alternative scenarios to choose from here.

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