Taking the Bait

As Paul has noted below, Trump is now on day 4 of his increasingly unhinged and consistently sexist attacks on Alicia Machado. It’s well known at this point that this was the result of a trap carefully set by Clinton, which predictably proved enticing for the ludicrously unprepared Trump. And yet, it seems to be working even better than the Clinton campaign could have imagined:

Three polls post debate in Florida. Clinton has led in all three. Unless there's an insane map, Trump cannot win without Florida.

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 30, 2016

538, still the most bearish major projection site on Clinton, has her at a 67% chance of winning.

My guess is that in retrospect the debate in general and Trump being unable to resist reiterating his sexist and nutty attacks on Machado will be seen as the point at which any chance Trump had at the White House ended. Since Kellyanne Conway was hired, Trump had remained relatively hinged by his standards. And partly because of the Clinton rules and partly because journalism abhors a vacuum, this meant a lot of space devoted to stories about the Clinton Foundation that didn’t actually turn up anything but nonetheless RAISED TROUBLING QUESTIONS because “we looked into this potential conflict of interest and found bupkis” isn’t the story editors want to publish. This was allowing the race to settle into a generic Dem v. generic GOP race — one in which the former has an advantage in the Electoral College but not an overwhelming one. That dynamic is now over — Trump is doing everything he can to make clear that he’s staggeringly unqualified for the office and to mobilize women and people of color against him. With election less than 40 days away and two debates still on tap, and the latest proof that he’s completely undisciplined and unprepared, I don’t see how he even comes close to making up the gap again. For Senate purposes, however, I hope he keeps his night tweeting habit in full force.