The GOP Still Has a Collective Action Problem

Chait has an amusing rundown of conservative pundits who urged Marco Rubio to unleash his Don Rickles impression on Donald Trump, praised Rubio for his political genius when he adopted their strategy, and are now urging Rubio to drop out because their advice was a catastrophic failure when put into practice. And it’s certainly true that Rubio staying in the race at this point is excellent news for Donald Trump. But I think it’s not at all surprising that Rubio is apparently staying in to get humiliated in Florida.

First of all, Rubio may still think he has a chance — after all, Mitt Romney’s people apparently convinced themselves that he had it in the bag, and as Bernie Sanders showed earlier this week primary polling is not terribly reliable. But even if he knows he’s probably drawing dead, I’m not sure why he would drop out. A key problem is that at this point stopping Trump means Ted Cruz. And one has to assume that, as is the case with every other member of the Republican Senate conference, Rubio wouldn’t piss on Cruz if he was on fire. Rubio presumably doesn’t want Hillary Clinton to become president, but while Trump is a terrible general election candidate it’s not exactly obvious that Cruz — who’s Barry Goldwater without the charm — is much more electable. Rubio losing Florida badly will certainly look bad for him, but it’s not as if preemptively dropping out before the votes are even cast would be any less humiliating. So what incentive does he have to drop out now? None, as far as I can see. The nearly identical substantive views shared by all of the major Republican candidates are going to be represented in a particularly unattractive package either way. I can understand why conservative pundits prefer Cruz to Trump if that’s the choice they’re left with, but it’s not Rubio’s problem.