Throw out the hardware, let’s do it right: NHL Playoff Preview 2015
It’s NHL playoff time: if you can’t fly, you’ll have to move in with the rhythm section. Last year the dreary architecture of my soul compelled me to immerse in the analytic literature, and coincidentally or not I went 13-2 pretty much going with the numbers, so I have every intention of doing that again. But first, let’s turn things over to Grand Poohbah of English Literatoor Emeritus Michael Berube, who in our annual tradition will pick the Eastern Conference. Back when his day gig was stacking cutouts at the Strand, Michael acquired a rooting interest in the Rangers, so he has an emotional stake in a contender. We’ll turn to him first:
—
It is that time of year again, when Scott asks me for my picks in the NHL playoffs, Eastern Conference edition, and I reply with a bunch of predictions salted liberally with Steely Dan lyrics. So let’s break out the hats and hooters, and get to it! You should know how all the pros play the game. Scott gets the West, with its angry race of fallen Kings.
# 1 Rangers v. # 8 Penguins Oh, this is tempting. Just when I say boy we can’t miss, you are golden, I get a matchup like this– just the one I wanted, and that worries me. I was hoping the Rangers would not have to face Boston in round one, because the powerful Bruins insignia makes the Rangers cough up the puck; and I was hoping my guys would not have to face Ottawa, because the Sens have lost only four games in regulation since February 10. But now I wonder: even though the Pens look like they can’t wait to make their tee times in May, might they be motivated enough to make the Rangers pay for all the severe damage they did to the Penguins franchise last year? Maybe. But then again, the Penguins don’t have any defensemen left. They got a name for the winners in the world: Rangers in 5.
# 2 Canadiens v. # 7 Senators Did I mention that the Senators are hot? I mean, crazy hot and scary hot? Then again, Carey Price. It’s nice to see some kind of rivalry crop up between a team from Québec and a team from Ontario, at least until we wait to see whether professional hockey will return to Toronto. But if the Sens really imagine that their little wild time has just begun, I got the news: Carey Price. Habs in 6.
# 3 Lightning v. # 6 Red Wings It is so weird seeing Detroit in the Eastern Conference. I’m not one to look behind, I know that times must change, but has anyone stopped to think that if you have 14 teams in the West and 16 in the East, and eight playoff spots in each, uh, imbalance? Not that it matters to the Red Wings, who are in the playoffs for the 24th consecutive year. I have been betting against the boys from Hockeytown for years, believing that I was feeling a change in the guard, but they are always dangerous, even when they’re not sure they have a real NHL goalie behind them, ahem. Then again, they’re facing the killer line of forwards Johnson, Palat, and Stamkos– and a team that does not lose at home (32-8-1). Oh yeah, and the Lightning GM is a guy named Yzerman, so there’s that angle. So the question for me, finally, is whether Zetterberg and Datsyuk will turn out to be shadows of the men that I once knew. Lightning in 6.
# 4 Capitals v. # 5 Islanders The Isles are thinking that the danger on the rocks is surely past. They are legitimate contenders for the first time in thirty years, and no one can say they aren’t leaving the hideous Nassau Coliseum in style. As for me, I’ve been around the world and I’ve been in the Washington Zoo, and I can tell you that home ice advantage (which the Islanders managed to squander in the final minutes of their season) will mean nothing to the Capitals. DC is like whatever the opposite of Hockeytown would be. But will this be a short series? Only a fool would say that. It will go the distance, it might even involve a 4-OT finish like in ’87, and I’m saying Caps only because I want to see a Caps-Rangers matchup in the second round. Next year when the Islanders move, I feel sure they will make the playoffs again, and I will be able to say something about Brooklyn owing the charmer under me, if I can manage to figure out what that means. Caps in 7.
—
And now, I will tackle the West:
#1 Anaheim (51.5 Fenwick even strength and close, 14th in NHL) v. #7 Winnipeg (54.1 FF%, 2nd) That’s right — what looks like the quintessential plucky underdog is actually one of the best possession teams in the league. (My Jack Adams vote would go to Paul Maurice without a second’s hesitation.) That doesn’t mean that I think this is an easy series to predict or that I would put a lot of money on the Jets should I find myself in Vegas with a handle in my hand. Anaheim has been outperforming their possession numbers for long enough to make me wonder if there’s something about Boudreau’s coaching or the Ducks’ frontline talent that doesn’t show up in what after all are pretty crude metrics. But what the hell, I want to see the Jets shine in your Brandon and sparkle in your Flin Flon, so I’ll go with the numbers and hope Winnipeg’s goaltending hold up. JETS IN 7.
#2 St. Louis (52.3 FF%, 9th) v. # 6 Minnesota (52.0 FF%, 11th) With the Western Conference playoffs having seen the last of Good King Thornton for now, the Blues are poised to take over the mantle of “excellent regular season team that can’t get over the hump.” The divisional alignment doesn’t do them any favors, as they face a talented Minnesota team that comes into the playoffs sizzling like an isotope. One key variable is Devyn Dubnyk, who played like Dominik Hasek (.936 SP%!) since coming over in midseason. I like Dubnyk and the Oilers selling him low is the kind of thing that makes me hope Kevin Lowe is in charge of the Oilers in perpetuity (which apparently he is), but on the other hand nothing in his record suggests he’s that good and Yeo rode him like Secretariat down the stretch; I can see a regression to the mean coming. Since Good King Ken is a superb coach but also a hardass with a short shelf life, this is a crucial year for the Blues, and I think their superb defensive corps will allow them to get through what should be a great series. BLUES IN 7.
#3 Nashville (53.6 FF%, 5th) v. #4 Chicago (53.0 FF%, 7th) Another great matchup. Nashville is a very, very good team, a little light on offense but a tremendous top 4 on the blueline and (unlike St. Louis) first-rate goaltending to go with it. Chicago needs no introduction; they’re not quite as formidable as they were 2 years ago but we’ve seen their iron and seen their brass and they have as good a chance of getting out of the conference as anyone. The Preds did tail off a bit in the second half, and with Kane apparently ready to go I’m not quite feelin’ the change of the guard here. BLACKHAWKS in 7.
#5 Vancouver (50.7 FF%, 18th v. #8 Calgary 46.2 FF%, 26th The existential question for people in my position: is it better to lose to the Canucks than not to have made the playoffs at all? Despite the possession troubles the Flames have had, a surprising number of people are picking them. But while I’ve already been accused of one correspondent of expectations management, like a castle in his corner in a medieval game I foresee a terrible trouble. Admittedly, if Giordono was healthy this wouldn’t be a mismatch; despite the perception of improvement Vancouver has also become below-average possession team, and if the Flames can continue to stay out of the box they can be competitive. But the injury to the captain really is crucial. There’s obviously no non-devastating way to lose the presumptive Norris frontrunner, but it attacks Calgary where it’s most vulnerable: defensive depth. Brodie is great, but he’s paired with Deryk Engelland, who’s not even an acceptable bottom-pairing guy, leaving the Flames with zero defensive pairs you’d feel comfortable putting out against another team’s top line. On the other hand, even though Bieksa never really developed Vancouver still has an underrated defensive core with Tanev, Edler and Hamhuis. The Hudler/Monahan/Gaudreau line can go toe-to-toe with the Sedins, but while I’ll be praying like a Roman with her eyes on fire for the opposite, I just don’t think Calgary will be able to keep the Canucks off the scoresheet well enough to win. CANUCKS in 5.
In the East, I will dissent from Michael only on the Islanders. They’re never going back to their old dump after the playoffs, but I think Nassau County will get at least 2 series this year.