Championship Round Open Thread

Will we have a Lemieux/Loomis/djw v. Campos grudge match two weeks from now? I’d sign for it! But I’m far from sure:

BRONCOS (-4 1/2) over Patriots You obviously have to respect what Belichick and Brady are able to keep doing in keeping their team among the best teams in football every year in a cap era. But this line strikes me as at least two points two high. The Broncos are at home and have a substantial edge in the passing game — I suspect that what looks like Brady’s decline is much more about the combination of bad judgment and bad luck that has surrounded Brady with third-rate receiving options than with Brady itself, but it doesn’t matter. Belichick has done nice work putting together a nice running game on the cheap*, but that’s much less important and as we saw last week trying to beat the Broncos on the ground is generally a bad idea. Moreover, the Broncos can also run pretty well at the Patriots have a worse run defense. You can’t really like the Patriots’ chances of winning a shootout and nor do I think they can grind it out. So for Campos, at least, things are going to work out.

49ers (+4) over SEAHAWKS Again, I can’t really judge this game objectively, so see Barnwell. This line I understand — Seattle a slightly better team (comparable offenses, better defense) at home with an unusually large advantage, so they’re more likely to win. I also agree that the backlash against Wilson has become excessive — he was about even with Kaepernick this year and on the same team I think he’d emerge as the starter. But there’s the rub — Golden Tate, Seattle’s best receiver, would be the fourth-best receiving option on the 49ers, and I think this will negate the advantage their defense should afford them in the passing game. Essentially, I think the 49ers are probably better than their numbers this year indicate, while the Seahawks aren’t. If Harvin was healthy I’d probably pick Seattle, but without him I’m concerned that there will be too many three-and-outs to win. I have to think that the chances of a 49er win + a Seattle win by less than 4 points are better than 50/50 at this point.

*Last week’s game was an excellent illustration of what Belichick does well, as why the Colts have a way to go:

• The Patriots could use some depth at running back, so they traded a 7th round pick and a special teams guy for LaGarret Blount, a talented back coming off an off year.  He ran for 5 yards a crack in the regular season and had a huge game in the divisional round.
• The Colts needed some depth at running back.  So they traded a 1st round pick for idiotic first round pick turned massive bust “YOUNG STAR” [– Greggggggg Easterbrook] Trent Richardson. The new cross between Barry Sanders and Jim Brown — Sanders and Brown would have both been on the bench behind Mark Ingram as sophomores, I think we can all agree  — gave the Colts 2.9 yards a carry in the regular season before breaking out for 1 yard and a fumble on 4 carries the the playoffs.

Lessons: running backs are fungible, decent ones are not hard to find, and understanding this gives you a leg up on opponents who don’t.  (Cf. also the Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans.)