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The Inevitably of Romney, An Ongoing Series


There’s no way around it — having opponents who weren’t running for president or were only half-seriously running is a major advantage.

Relatedly, I think in his post arguing that Romney isn’t inevitable Nate Silver in fact makes an excellent case for his inevitability. His scenarios for how Romney “could lose” establish what we already know — Romney is theoretically very vulnerable, and has been remarkably lucky not to get a serious challenge from a plain vanilla conservative. But when it comes to identifying the candidate who could actually beat Romney, Silver draws a blank — for the obvious reason that there isn’t one. So Ron Paul wins in Iowa, so then what? So Romney has a relatively disappointing performance in Iowa, who’s beating him in New Hampshire? Let’s say by some miracle Huntsman gets some Jonmentum and finishes a strong second — anybody think his running against the party strategy plays in South Carolina? Sorry, but it’s Mittens in a cakewalk.

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